COUNTRY FOCUS: Tunisia – Balancing cereal recovery with structural import dependence

Tunisia, situated along the Mediterranean coast with Algeria to the west and Libya to the southeast, is home to nearly 13 million people. Agriculture plays a central role in the country’s economy, contributing approximately 10–14% of GDP and employing 13–16% of the workforce. Predominantly composed of smallholder farms, 62% of which occupy less than 10 hectares, the agricultural sector focuses on olive oil, dates, and cereal production. While Tunisia is globally recognized as a top olive oil producer, its wheat and barley production remains crucial to the domestic milling sector.

Cereal Production Recovers after Favorable Rains

Cereal production in Tunisia is dominated by durum wheat, soft wheat, and barley, and is highly sensitive to annual climate fluctuations. The sector, however, faces significant constraints due to drought conditions that affect crop yields, water availability, and food security. The country experienced three consecutive years of drought, causing reservoir levels to fall to 25% of capacity and requiring water rationing by authorities. Grain harvests decreased by 60%, with domestic production falling to 250,000 metric tons. However, improved winter rainfall has significantly influenced production prospects. For marketing year (MY) 2025/26, Tunisian authorities forecast wheat output at 1.35 million metric tons (MMT) and barley at 500,000 metric tons (MT), reflecting increases of approximately 14% and 80%, respectively, over the previous year.

Durum wheat, essential for semolina and pasta production, is cultivated extensively in central and southern regions, while soft wheat is primarily used for bread. Despite ongoing government programs, Tunisia continues to rely on imports to meet domestic demand.

Wheat: Persistent Import Reliance despite Policy Efforts

Wheat remains Tunisia’s most strategic grain commodity. Production for MY 2025/26 is projected at 1.35 MMT, covering only about 45% of domestic needs. National consumption is expected to reach 2.99 MMT, up from 2.885 MMT in MY 2024/25, reflecting annual population growth of approximately 2%. Per capita wheat consumption stands at an estimated 236 kg, among the highest in North Africa. To close the supply gap, Tunisia is forecast to import approximately 1.7–2.0 MMT of wheat in MY 2025/26, equivalent to nearly 55% of total demand.

In 2023, the government introduced a strategy aimed at achieving greater wheat self-sufficiency by expanding durum wheat acreage to 800,000 hectares and strengthening extension services. The program targeted 1.05 MMT of grain output, including 945,000 metric tons of durum wheat. However, structural constraints and climatic volatility have limited progress toward full independence.

The Office des Céréales (ODC), Tunisia’s state grain agency, plays a pivotal role in securing wheat imports. By the end of 2025, ODC awarded tenders for 125,000 MT of soft wheat to companies including Soufflet (France), Finagrit (Italy), Buildcom (Bulgaria), and Louis Dreyfus (Netherlands), at an average price of US$256.84 per ton. Durum wheat tenders totaling 100,000 MT were awarded to Casillo, a leading Italian processor, and UAE-based Amber Grains, at an average price of US$319.69 per ton.

A tender held on January 28, 2026, by ODC sought 100,000 MT each of soft and durum wheat for early 2026 delivery, reflecting continued import activity. USDA projections indicate domestic wheat consumption for MY 2025/26 will reach 2.99 MMT, up from 2.885 MMT the previous year, driven by population growth of approximately 2% and per capita consumption of 236 kg. With domestic production meeting only 45% of demand, Tunisia remains reliant on imports for roughly 55% of its wheat needs.

The wheat subsidy program ensures the affordability of flour, semolina, and bread, with the government covering price differentials. While the program strains the national budget, it remains a cornerstone of Tunisia’s food security policy. According to USDA data, the Cereal Board maintains exclusive control over wheat importation and distribution, including all domestic tenders.

Barley: Expanding Role in Feed and Brewing

Barley, while a secondary cereal crop, plays a vital role in Tunisia’s livestock feed sector and brewing industry. Marketing Year 2025–26 forecasts indicate barley consumption will reach 940,000 MT, reflecting steady annual growth of about 2%. Barley production increased to 412,000 hectares from 395,000 hectares in MY 2024–25. The crop primarily supports feedlots and supplemental feeding for livestock in regions with stressed rangelands.

The brewing industry has further driven demand, with imports rising sharply to 1.43 MMT in 2023, nearly doubling the 0.71 MMT imported in 2022. Tunisia has liberalized barley imports, moving from a state-controlled monopoly under ODC to private sector participation. This aligns with recommendations from international institutions, reduces government expenditure, and encourages market efficiency.

Storage and Logistics: Structural Bottlenecks Persist

Tunisia’s cereal supply chain faces critical infrastructure constraints. Storage capacity is insufficient, with the silo network accommodating only 508,000 MT, short by approximately 300,000 MT, forcing reliance on open-air storage, which increases aflatoxin contamination risks. Post-harvest losses range from 10–15%, reducing farmer income and heightening import dependence. Farmers in interior regions often transport grain over 150 km on poor-quality roads to reach certified storage facilities, adding significant costs.

To address these gaps, the government plans to invest US$66 million (205 million dinars) in new silo construction by 2027, increasing storage capacity by 24% to 628,000 MT. New facilities will be strategically located in Rades (40,000 MT), Sousse (58,000 MT), and Sfax (38,000 MT). Additionally, US$45 million (143 million dinars) will renovate existing silos, modernizing 206,000 MT of capacity. A further US$1.9 million (6 million dinars) investment will digitize grain collection processes, enhancing efficiency and transparency across 200 collection centers.

Resolving these storage and logistics constraints could reduce wheat import volumes by 7–10%, according to World Bank analysis, improving overall sector resilience. Despite these investments, Tunisia imported 4.1 MMT of cereals in 2024, with soft wheat accounting for 36.5% of those imports, highlighting its ongoing dependence on foreign supplies.

The Milling Sector

The milling industry covers 2 main activities particularly, flour milling and semolina production. The country’s milling industry is highly regulated, with private mills operating under government oversight. Wheat and barley account for 87–88% of grain processed. Production targets the local market, supplying subsidized flour for bread and semolina for couscous and pasta. While the state controls imports and distribution via the Cereal Board, over 50% of wheat flows through private industrial mills that process it under organized channels.

According to the ODC website, mills are concentrated near coastal urban centres like Tunis, Sousse, and Sfax, where infrastructure supports large-scale production and distribution, representing nearly 80% of the national crushing capacity.  Leading players include Les Grands Moulins du Cap Bon (GMC SARL), part of the La Rose Blanche Group, GMC ranks third in durum wheat milling and eighth in bread wheat milling. It produces flour and semolina under the “EL KHOMSA” brand. M.C.S.R (Central and Sahel United Mills): Also part of the Rose Blanche Group, M.C.S.R operates modern facilities capable of milling 900 tons/day of durum wheat and 450 tons/day of soft wheat, dominating domestic markets. Other notable mills include Les Grands Moulins de Tunis, Mezzouna Mills, and Société Tunisienne des Grands Moulins, which focus on flour for industrial bakeries, couscous, and pasta production. Milling operations leverage modern roller and stone milling technologies, though integration with digital inventory and quality control systems remains limited.

In Tunisia, livestock feed units (LFUs) fall under the private sector. According to ODC, any natural or legal person is authorised to operate in this field according to the conditions of the technical specifications for the manufacture of livestock feed. The majority of livestock feed units are located around large urban areas as well as in governorates known for the importance of animal husbandry activity such as the northwest and the central west.

Policy and Market Dynamics

Tunisia faces a complex set of challenges and opportunities in its cereal and milling sectors. Climatic variability, insufficient storage, and transportation bottlenecks are key constraints that heighten import dependency. Government policy heavily influences the grain and milling sectors. Subsidy programs for wheat and flour ensure food affordability but impose fiscal pressure. International institutions, including the World Bank and FAO, have advised gradual liberalization, infrastructure investment, and digitalization to improve efficiency and reduce dependence on imports.

Tunisia’s cereal market is transitioning toward private sector participation, particularly in barley imports, while the state maintains oversight of wheat to guarantee strategic food security. Price fluctuations, climatic variability, and reliance on imports continue to create market volatility, affecting both producers and consumers.

By Martha Kuria, Food Scientist and Product Innovation Specialist.

This feature appeared in ISSUE 18 of MILLING MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA MAGAZINE. You can read this and the entire magazine HERE