Kenya has positioned itself as East Africa’s leading supplier of raw barley, with exports estimated at 39,997 tonnes in 2025.
Rapeseed and sunflower oil exports are expected to increase 8% and 15%, respectively.
The Department of Agriculture warned that a strong El Niño could cut rice production by up to 700,000 tonnes, or 3.5% of the annual target.
The USDA released the forecast as part of its latest global grain market outlook, highlighting a broader slowdown in import demand across North Africa and the Middle East as regional production and stock levels improve.
The region, already the world’s largest rice importer, is expected to increase its import volumes further as demand for rice continues to outpace local production, driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and changing consumer preferences toward convenience foods.