North Africa’s wheat imports forecast to drop 13% in 2026/27 as domestic harvests improve

NORTH AFRICA – North African countries are expected to import a combined 29 million metric tons of wheat during the 2026/27 marketing campaign, according to the latest global grains market report published by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

If realized, the forecast would represent a 12.9% decline from the previous season’s 33.3 million tons, and would also mark the first contraction in regional wheat imports in five years.

The USDA attributed the shift mainly to favorable crop prospects across several countries. Morocco expects cereal production to double by the end of the 2025/26 campaign, while Tunisia projects a 20% increase in harvests during the same period, as favorable weather conditions support output growth.

Algeria is similarly forecast to produce a record 4.1 million metric tons of wheat, up 28% from last year, with a yield of 2.68 tons per hectare, 68% above last year’s figure.

Analysts noted that cumulative rainfall since October has been the highest in 25 years in the center and northwest of the region, with abundant moisture covering the agricultural zones of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, a rare occurrence in this semi-arid area just north of the Sahara Desert.

At the country level, Morocco is expected to record the steepest drop in wheat purchases, with the USDA forecasting the kingdom’s imports at 4 million tons, down nearly 43% year-on-year.

Algeria should reduce imports by 10%, while Egypt should cut purchases by 5%.

Despite the anticipated decline, Egypt is still forecast to be tied with Indonesia as the world’s largest wheat importer, each purchasing 12.5 million tons on international markets during the 2026/27 season.

Despite the expected decline in imports, North Africa will remain one of the world’s most import-dependent wheat regions, though lower import volumes could help ease food import bills across the region, as global agricultural commodity prices remain volatile.

On the global supply side, the overall outlook for 2026/27 is for lower supplies, marginally lower consumption, reduced trade, and decreased ending stocks compared with 2025/26.

Global wheat production is forecast at 819.1 million tons, down from last year’s record 843.8 million, with the largest reductions recorded among the major exporting countries.

Russia remains the largest global wheat exporter, forecast at 47 million tons for 2026/27, supported by strong domestic supplies despite lower production.

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