Brazil set to strengthen lead in global soybean market in FY25/26

BRAZIL – Brazil, the third-largest exporter of agricultural products after the European Union and the United States, is set to expand its dominance in the soybean market.

According to Global Energy CERA forecasts published on March 25, the country will harvest 182 million tons of soybeans from nearly 50 million hectares.

This output would account for more than 42% of global production, up from 30.3% a decade ago. Export volumes could reach 112 million tons, representing 59.2% of global trade.

“Brazil has come a long way. If some 10 years ago, the country could not compete in terms of yields with the USA, the use of technology in seeds has allowed them to reach the United States and even surpass it,” said Marcela Marini, Senior Research Analyst at the Brazilian subsidiary of Rabobank.

The United States, which once supplied over 60% of the world’s soybeans in 1980, has lost ground. CERA analysts expect U.S. soybean production in 2025/2026 to reach 116 million tons or 26.9% of global production. Exports are projected at 42.9 million tons, or 22.6% of world trade, down from 39.8% ten years ago.

China continues to influence global soybean flows. State-owned firms have purchased about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October, but most Chinese imports now come from Brazil. Competitive prices and record production encourage further shipments to China in early 2026.

“Some traders are optimistic that the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in May could boost U.S. sales, but China has shifted to purchasing most of its soybeans from Brazil since last year,” said a Beijing-based analyst.

Global trade dynamics

The global market reflects these shifts. Chicago Board of Trade soybean contracts rose 0.2% to US$11.74 per bushel (approximately US$460 per metric ton) as traders weighed U.S.-China relations.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in May, raising hopes for renewed U.S. soybean purchases. However, analysts note China has already sourced most of its soybeans from Brazil since last year.

“Some traders are optimistic that the meeting would raise the prospect for continued China buying of U.S. soybeans, but it’s worth noting that China has shifted to purchasing most of its soybeans from Brazil,” said a Beijing-based analyst.

China is expected to increase Brazilian soybean imports in early 2026 as record output and competitive prices drive shipments. Recent developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations have also raised optimism for reduced tensions in the Middle East, which could support global agricultural trade.

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