Kenya anticipates maize deficit of nearly 486,000 tonnes by late September

KENYA – Kenya is projecting a severe maize deficit of approximately 486,000 metric tonnes, equivalent to 5.4 million 90-kilogram bags, by the end of September 2026, as adverse weather conditions and weaker-than-expected production threaten supplies of the country’s most important staple cereal.

Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe presented the sobering forecast before Parliament, warning that domestic production could plunge by up to 40% following significant climate disruptions and input supply delays during the current agricultural season.

The looming shortfall is primarily attributed to unpredictable weather patterns across major grain-producing hubs, including the North Rift region.

Early seasonal rainfall prompted premature planting, which was quickly followed by a prolonged dry spell during the crucial crop establishment and flowering stages.

The crop damage was further exacerbated by distribution bottlenecks that delayed the delivery of government-subsidized fertilizer to farmers during the primary planting window.

To cushion consumers and stabilize domestic grain reserves, the government has announced plans to import one million 90-kilogram bags of maize through a government-to-government procurement framework.

However, this volume covers only about 19% of the expected deficit, and Kenya may have to resort to additional imports if production forecasts are confirmed.

In its latest report on the Kenyan grain market, published in March 2026, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projected nearly 800,000 tons of corn imports for the entire 2025/2026 marketing year, compared to 250,000 tons in 2024/2025.

The announcement of the expected deficit comes at a time when the market is already under pressure. In June, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) estimated that maize prices were between their average level and 20% above it in several markets, mainly due to weak supply, sustained demand and high transport costs.

The organization also forecasts that wholesale prices in the markets of the capital Nairobi could remain 9 to 19% above their five-year average until January 2027, due in particular to limited supply, sustained demand and high fuel costs.

The impending shortage is already exerting upward pressure on household budgets across the country.

Retail prices for a standard two-kilogram packet of unga (maize flour) ranged between KSh 153 and KSh 163 in recent months, with further price spikes anticipated as commercial millers compete for diminishing local stocks.

Beyond immediate consumer price inflation, agricultural authorities expressed concern over the medium-term impact on smallholder farming livelihoods.

Depressed harvest yields reduce total farm revenues, leaving many growers with reduced working capital to purchase seed, fertilizer, and land preparation services for the upcoming planting cycle.

The Ministry of Agriculture is currently reviewing contingency measures to support affected farming communities and sustain national food security through the remainder of the year.

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