Output is projected to fall by 19% to 14.9 million tonnes, well below last year’s record crop of 18.4 million tonnes.
The market decline comes despite ongoing logistics disruptions across the Black Sea region, which have severely curbed export volumes from major competitors Russia and Ukraine.
Despite the monthly surge, imports were 47% lower than in October 2025, reflecting cautious buying, currency pressure and continued uncertainty around Black Sea export routes.
The decline is expected to tighten domestic supplies and could weigh on Canada’s wheat exports in the coming marketing year.
The EU average yield is put at 2.24 tonnes per hectare, about 15% below the five-year average, forcing Europe to depend even more heavily on international imports.