USDA projects US soybean gains as corn, wheat production softens in 2026-27

USA – The US 2026/27 cropping pattern is expected to shift in favor of soybeans, with increased planted area and higher production, while corn and wheat acreage and output are forecast to decline, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The projections, presented on Feb. 20 at the Department’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum, point to stronger oilseed demand fundamentals and relatively weaker prospects for feed grains and wheat in the coming marketing year.

Bryn Swearingen, an agricultural economist with the USDA’s Economic Research Service, outlined the supply and demand expectations for the three major crops, highlighting the role of biofuel policy, export competition and domestic processing capacity in shaping planting decisions.

Corn

US corn planted area is forecast at 94 million acres in 2026-27, down from 98.8 million acres in 2025-26.

Harvested area is expected to decline to 86.1 million acres from 91.3 million acres, while yields are projected at 183 bushels per acre compared with 186.5 bushels previously.

Production is forecast at 15.755 billion bushels, representing a 7% year-over-year decline. Domestic food, seed and industrial use is expected to remain steady, but feed and residual use is projected to soften.

Corn exports are forecast at 3.1 billion bushels, down 6% from the prior marketing year, reflecting strong competition from South America and the Black Sea region.

As a result, US corn ending stocks on Sept. 1, 2027, are forecast at 1.837 billion bushels, down 14% from 2026 levels.

Soybeans  

Soybeans are forecast to gain acreage, with planted area rising to 85 million acres in 2026 from 81.2 million acres in 2025.

Yields are expected to hold steady at 53 bushels per acre, pushing production up 4% to 4.450 billion bushels.

The USDA anticipates a recovery in soybean exports compared with the current marketing year, although the US share of global soybean exports is expected to continue its long-term downward trend due to sustained growth in Brazilian output.

Domestic demand remains the primary growth driver. Soybean crush is forecast at 2.655 billion bushels, up 3% from 2.570 billion bushels in the current year.

Moderate gains in global and domestic demand for soybean meal, combined with strong expansion in soybean oil consumption tied to biomass-based diesel fuel requirements, are supporting processing volumes.

Reduced biofuel blending credits for fuels produced domestically using imported feedstocks are also reinforcing demand for US-origin soybean oil. In addition, expanded export capacity at Pacific Northwest ports is expected to strengthen logistics efficiency for shipments into Asian markets.

Seed and residual use is projected to ease slightly to 109 million bushels. Ending stocks on Sept. 1, 2027, are forecast at 355 million bushels, up 5 million bushels from the previous year, suggesting a relatively balanced supply outlook.

Wheat: Lower output, higher global stocks

For wheat, planted area is forecast to edge lower to 45 million acres from 45.3 million acres. Average yield is projected to decline to 50.8 bushels per acre from 53.3 bushels, bringing production down 6% to 1.860 billion bushels.

Globally, wheat production is expected to outpace consumption, resulting in higher world ending stocks and intensified export competition.

US wheat exports are forecast to fall to 850 million bushels from 900 million bushels in the current marketing year.

Domestic food use is projected to increase slightly to 969 million bushels, reflecting steady flour demand from millers and bakers. Feed and residual use is expected to remain stable, while seed use is forecast slightly lower at 59 million bushels.

The June 1, 2027, carryover is forecast at 933 million bushels, marginally above the previous year’s 931 million bushels.

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