Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice imports set to hit record high in 2026/27: USDA
The region, already the world’s largest rice importer, is expected to increase its import volumes further as demand for rice continues to outpace local production, driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and changing consumer preferences toward convenience foods.
AFRICA – The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has forecast Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice imports at a record 19.3 million metric tons in the 2026/27 marketing season, up from 18.7 million tons a year earlier.
The projection, published on May 12, 2026, underscores the region’s sustained and growing appetite for imported rice, driven by structural shifts in diet, population growth, and urbanization.
After a slight contraction in 2025/26, Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice purchases are expected to regain momentum in the new marketing season, with the projected volume marking a new record for a region that has emerged over the past decade as the world’s leading rice-importing hub.
Over the past fifteen years, the combination of strong demand and weak local supply has led to a doubling of rice imports across the region.
West Africa will continue to drive import demand, led by Nigeria, the Ivory Coast, and Senegal.
In Nigeria, the continent’s most populous nation, external purchases are expected to remain flat but substantial at 2.9 million metric tons.
Meanwhile, Senegal is projected to increase its imports by 100,000 tons, bringing them to 1.4 million tons. Conversely, Côte d’Ivoire is expected to record a minor year-on-year decline of 100,000 tons, bringing its total imports to 1.7 million tons.
Guinea and Ghana are also expected to post modest increases in purchases, reaching 1.22 million tons and 900,000 tons, respectively.
Rice consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa has nearly doubled over the last 15 years, fueled by population growth, urbanization, economic growth, and dietary shifts towards rice as a staple.
In coastal cities and across West Africa, increased consumption is driven by imports that are generally more affordable or preferred because of quality.
The rebound in African purchases is expected to help push global rice trade to a record 63 million tons, despite declining global rice supply and inventories.
Global milled rice supply is projected to decline by 5 million tons year-on-year to 537.8 million tons, with India, Myanmar, and the United States recording the largest output declines. Global stocks are also expected to decrease by 3.6 million tons to 192.7 million tons.
On the supply side, India will remain the leading supplier to Sub-Saharan Africa after it broadly reopened rice exports in the final quarter of 2024, a move that intensified competition among Asian suppliers and contributed to lower global prices.
India has emerged as the largest supplier to the region owing to its competitive prices and ability to supply large quantities, with Thailand and Pakistan serving as alternative suppliers.
However, analysts cautioned that traders will closely monitor changes in rice trade policies across the region in the coming months.
Several governments have introduced measures to support domestic production, including import restrictions imposed in Burkina Faso and encouragement from authorities in Senegal and Ghana for public institutions to prioritize local rice consumption.
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