Nigeria grain output seen falling in 2026–27 as imports rise: USDA
While production may slip, consumption is expected to remain stable at 11.7 million tonnes
NIGERIA – Nigeria’s grain production could come under pressure in the 2026–27 marketing year as rising input costs discourage farmers from expanding planting, even as domestic demand for staple foods continues to grow.
In its Grain and Feed Annual report published March 2, the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicates that production of corn and rice may decline while imports increase to meet consumption needs.
Corn, Nigeria’s largest grain crop, is forecast to reach 10.9 million tonnes in 2026–27, representing a 5% decline from the previous marketing year.
The report attributes the expected drop mainly to reduced planted area and persistent cost pressures faced by farmers. Harvested area is projected to fall 8% to 4.8 million hectares.
Production costs have risen sharply during recent seasons. According to the report, the price of a 50-kilogram bag of fertilizer during the 2025–26 corn harvest was about 50% higher than the prior planting season. Farmers also faced surging costs for herbicides, fuel and labor.
“The difficult pricing left farmers unable to substantially cover increased production expenses, which included fertilizer, herbicides, fuel and labor costs that had for some reportedly doubled or tripled within the past year, leading to considerable financial losses,” the FAS said, citing industry contacts.
Despite lower output expectations, corn consumption in Nigeria is projected to remain stable at about 11.7 million tonnes, supported mainly by the country’s feed industry.
Imports are forecast to rise sharply to about 650,000 tonnes in 2026–27, compared with 400,000 tonnes a year earlier, as global prices remain competitive relative to domestic grain prices. The FAS noted that a strengthening Nigerian naira could also make imports more cost-effective.
Feed millers account for the largest share of corn consumption, although demand growth may be constrained by poultry producers seeking to control production costs by using cheaper, homemade feed formulations.
Rice production is also expected to decline as farmers face similar financial pressures.
Output in 2026–27 is projected at 8.3 million tonnes, down 6% from 8.8 million tonnes in 2025–26. Planted area is forecast to fall 7% to 4.2 million hectares as growers scale back investment in the crop.
However, domestic rice consumption is expected to rise 6% to about 9 million tonnes. To meet the widening supply gap, imports are forecast at 3.5 million tonnes.
“Being Africa’s most populous country, population growth at 3.2% annually and increasing urbanization are continuously driving up total demand for staple foods like rice,” the FAS said.
According to USDA, there is a growing preference for rice over other staples due to its ease of preparation, convenience and current affordability, which is increasingly favored in urban areas.
Nigeria’s wheat sector continues to rely heavily on imports due to limited domestic production capacity. Local farmers are projected to harvest about 140,000 tonnes of wheat in 2026–27, a 7% increase supported by expanded planting of approximately 120,000 hectares. Most of the crop consists of lower-protein wheat suitable for blending rather than large-scale flour milling.
Imports therefore remain critical to supply the country’s fast-growing milling industry. Wheat imports are forecast to reach 7.2 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes from the previous year, while total consumption is expected to reach about 6.8 million tonnes.
More than half of Nigeria’s estimated 240 million people regularly consume processed wheat products, including bread, noodles, semolina and pasta.
Demand from bakeries and food processors continues to expand, particularly in urban areas where convenience foods are becoming a major part of daily diets.
The FAS report suggests that unless production costs ease or farmgate prices improve, Nigeria’s dependence on imported grains could deepen as consumption continues to outpace domestic supply.
Sign up to HERE receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
