Weather, policy, and geopolitics reshape global grain trade: S&P Global’s Atlas of Food 2025
Corn remains the world’s most produced grain, heavily concentrated in the U.S., China, Brazil, and Argentina.
GLOBAL – Global food markets are facing heightened volatility as weather patterns, government policies, and geopolitical tensions reshape trade flows for key commodities, according to the “Atlas of Food” report for October 2025 released by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
The report underscores that the world’s major food crops, soybeans, corn, and wheat, are increasingly influenced by both climate and policy.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, government biofuel mandates in the U.S. and Brazil are reshaping agricultural demand patterns by diverting oilseeds and grains into energy markets.
Tariffs, quotas, and export restrictions, such as India’s wheat export ban and Russia’s price floor, continue to amplify volatility in food prices.
Weather variability remains the most persistent risk. The 2024–25 crop cycles saw severe droughts in Brazil, frosts in Russia, and shifting rainfall in the U.S. Corn Belt, all underscoring how climate extremes are now key price drivers across the food system.
Soybean: Dominance of Americas
Soybean production is predominantly concentrated in the Americas, accounting for 80% of global output, with Brazil emerging as the leading exporter ahead of the United States.
The report notes that Brazil’s double-cropping system provides a competitive edge, allowing farmers to alternate between soybeans and corn based on price ratios.
Platts data indicates that soybean prices, assessed via benchmarks like SOYBEX CFR China and FOB Santos, have been influenced by biofuel mandates in the US and Brazil, which divert soybean oil toward renewable diesel production.
Trade flows are heavily skewed toward China, which purchases over half of globally traded soybeans. The Brazil-to-China route represents more than 40% of international soybean trade.
However, US exports have declined by 15% since 2017-18 due to domestic crushing demands, as per USDA and Platts figures. Weather events, including La Niña-induced droughts in Brazil during 2021-22, have further driven volatility, with prices peaking in December 2021.
Processing yields approximately 19% oil and 78% meal from soybeans, with oil increasingly valued at 45% of the crush due to biofuel demand. Argentina leads in soybean oil and meal exports, while the EU is the largest meal importer.
Corn
Corn, the world’s primary feed grain, sees production concentrated in the US, China, Brazil, and Argentina, totaling over 70% of global supply. The US remains the top exporter in normal years, but Brazil overtook it in 2022-23 amid US droughts.
Platts assessments for Corn CFR Northeast Asia and FOB US Gulf Coast show prices influenced by biofuel policies, such as US ethanol blending mandates finalized in June 2023, which created export surpluses.
The report details seasonal cycles, with global supply tightening between July and September, leading to volatility.
In 2024, Brazil’s output dropped 10% to 119 million mt due to droughts in Mato Grosso, but a rebound to 130 million mt is forecasted for 2024-25.
Trade flows are diversified, with the US-to-Mexico route comprising 13% of global trade. Distillers Dried Grains with Solubles (DDGS), a corn ethanol byproduct, adds another layer, with the US dominating exports.
Wheat: Black sea dependency
Wheat, essential for human consumption, is produced mainly by China and the EU, but Russia leads exports, supplying the Middle East and Africa.
Platts FOB Russian Wheat 12.5% assessments reflect the impact of Russia’s export taxes and quotas since 2021, which stabilize domestic prices but elevate global costs.
The Black Sea region’s vulnerability was evident in the Russia-Ukraine war, causing prices to surge 26% within a week of the February 2022 invasion.
In addition, India’s 2022 export ban, following heat waves, further exacerbated volatility. The report forecasts tight supplies between April and June annually, with Egypt as a key importer reliant on subsidized bread programs.
Shifting protein markets
The Atlas of Food also examines the downstream effects of feed and crop prices on the meat sector.
Chicken, pork, and beef production are sensitive to feed costs, with poultry emerging as the most affordable and widely traded protein.
Brazil remains the leading chicken exporter, while the U.S. and the EU dominate pork and beef respectively.
However, disease outbreaks and extreme weather have repeatedly disrupted trade. Brazil’s temporary export halt in 2024 due to Newcastle disease and recent heat waves in 2025 caused significant price swings across the poultry market.
Feed-related costs remain central to livestock production economics, as nearly 70% of total poultry production expenses derive from feed, mostly corn and soybean meal.
The report links rising protein demand in developing economies with growing global grain use, underscoring the tight relationship between feed grains and food security.
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