S&P Global: Ukraine corn prices fall as wheat markets watch harvests
Weaker Turkish demand has pushed Ukrainian corn prices lower, while wheat traders focus on harvest progress, weather conditions, and freight costs.
UKRAINE – Ukrainian corn prices have fallen over the past month as demand from Turkey weakened, while global wheat markets remain focused on harvest prospects and freight costs despite the recent tentative US-Iran peace deal.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Platts assessed Ukraine corn FOB POC at US$229/mt on June 16, down from US$240/mt on May 15. The decline followed a rally triggered by Turkey’s decision to open a 3 million metric ton import quota with a reduced customs duty of 5% between April 20 and July 31.
Turkey has been the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn during the 2025-26 marketing year. Trade data shows the country imported 4.8 million metric tons between September and May, accounting for about 30% of Ukraine’s total corn exports during the period.
However, demand from Turkey’s feed sector has softened as wheat and barley became more attractive options.
“Corn consumption has come down, and most feed producers will change their ratios toward feed wheat as the harvest has started,” a Turkey-based importer said. “There is also the cost of finance, which is high. It doesn’t mean the quota has to be fulfilled.”
Market participants estimate that importers have already used more than half of the quota. While some expect demand to return later because rain delayed Turkey’s corn planting season, concerns in the poultry sector have also weighed on sentiment. On June 12, Turkish authorities appointed temporary administrators to 13 poultry companies during an investigation into alleged competition law violations and price increases.
With Turkish buying slowing, Ukrainian sellers have lowered prices to attract buyers in Europe. Yet demand there has also remained weak. Importers in Italy reported lower feed usage, while traders in Spain said South American corn continues to compete strongly against Ukrainian supplies.
Traders now expect Ukrainian corn prices to remain under pressure due to strong new-crop prospects and lower inland prices unless Turkey returns to the market before the quota expires on July 31.
Wheat markets focus on harvests and freight costs
In the wheat market, traders largely brushed aside the tentative US-Iran peace deal and instead focused on harvest progress, weather conditions, and freight rates. Participants across the Black Sea region, Australia, and North America said these factors continue to have a greater influence on prices than geopolitical developments.
The Platts Milling Wheat Marker stood at US$238/mt on June 16, down from US$242.25/mt earlier in the month. Demand from major importers, including Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey, has remained limited as buyers hold comfortable stocks and await new harvest supplies. Platts CIF East Mediterranean 12.5% wheat was assessed at US$256/mt on June 16, down from US$261/mt at the beginning of June.
Freight costs have become a key area of focus. Traders said shipping rates rose after tensions involving Iran increased but have since eased. Many market participants expect further declines if lower war-risk premiums reduce transport costs.
“If all macros go down, wheat prices might follow,” one trader said.
Australian market participants also pointed to weather and crop conditions as the main drivers of wheat prices, while North American traders said they remain cautious about the durability of the peace agreement and are taking a wait-and-see approach. Some traders expect freight rates to continue a gradual decline if lower geopolitical risk encourages greater flexibility in shipping negotiations.
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