Poland leads Nigeria’s wheat imports in 2023/24

NIGERIA – Poland has emerged as Nigeria’s leading supplier of wheat, accounting for 23% of the West African nation’s total wheat imports in the 2023/2024 marketing year.

This share makes the European country the leading supplier to the West African country, which imported a record volume of 5 million tonnes during the past campaign, according to Trade Data Monitor (TDM) data.

It is followed by Latvia, Canada, Lithuania and Russia, with Russia ranking fifth due to difficulties Nigerian importers faced in obtaining letters of credit from commercial banks.

Wheat is a critical input for staples like bread, noodles, and pasta, which are essential to Nigerian diets. Despite efforts to boost local production, Nigeria continues to rely heavily on wheat imports.

According to USDA, Nigeria, the largest country in Africa with a population of 232 million, will see wheat imports rise to 4.7 million tonnes in the 2024-25 marketing year, a 6% increase from earlier projections in April.

Despite this growth, the figure remains lower than the 5 million tonnes imported in 2023-24. Domestically, wheat production is expected to stagnate at 120,000 tonnes, unchanged from the previous year.

The FAS attributes this static production level to multiple factors, including ongoing insecurity in key wheat-producing areas, elevated fertilizer and seed prices, and the broader cost-of-living crisis, which has hindered farmers from expanding wheat cultivation.

Wheat demand is expected to drop to 4.4 million tonnes in 2024-25, down from 4.7 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.

The decline in demand follows the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) slashing Nigeria’s wheat consumption and imports by 10% and 9%, respectively, owing to a weakening naira.

Post attributes the decline to a weakening naira raising the cost of imported wheat, the ending of the national fuel subsidy that has eroded consumer purchasing power, and soft consumer demand for wheat-based products in favor of lower-cost alternatives.

According to USDA, food processing contacts reported that soft consumer demand for wheat-based foods such as bread, pasta, and noodles has declined significantly due to price increases for wheat flour.

Contacts further note that high food prices across all categories have made it difficult for consumers to switch from wheat-based products to alternatives.

In May, data from the International Grains Council (IGC) reported that Nigerian flour millers had imported 3.8 million tonnes of wheat valued at US$2.4 billion between July 2023 and April 2024.

According to the report, these imports represent 49.4 percent of the 7.5 million tonnes imported by West African countries.

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