Global wheat market hits five-year low amid abundant supplies, trade uncertainties

GLOBAL  – Chicago wheat futures plummeted to a five-year low on Tuesday, October 21, driven by escalating concerns over abundant global supplies fueled by robust exports from Russia, the world’s leading wheat shipper. 

The most-active December wheat contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) declined 0.6% to $5.0416 per bushel by mid-morning GMT, after briefly touching its lowest level since August 2020 at $4.93-3/4 a bushel. 

This downturn extended to soybeans and corn, as ongoing U.S. harvest pressures compounded uncertainties surrounding potential U.S.-China trade resolutions. 

The developments underscore a broader trend of ample production worldwide, even as geopolitical tensions and weather anomalies introduce volatility.

Soybean futures for November eased 0.4% to US$10.3564 per bushel, while December corn futures slipped 0.1% to US$4.2218 per bushel. These levels reflect a continuation of multi-year declines, with wheat prices down approximately 13.3% year-over-year and corn holding steady but vulnerable to further erosion.

Surging russian exports and global supply glut weigh on prices

Russia’s wheat sector remains a pivotal force in the current market dynamics. Consultants Sovecon recently revised their 2025 production estimate upward to 87.8 million metric tons, up from 87.2 million tons, citing record yields in Siberia. 

However, recent data reveals a more tempered outlook for exports, with shipments projected to total 42 million tons in the 2024-25 marketing year (July-June), a 24.3% decline from the prior year due to tighter domestic stocks and government-imposed quotas. 

Weekly exports from Black Sea ports reached 732,000 tons in early August, but have since moderated amid logistical constraints and a stronger ruble. 

Despite these curbs, the influx of Russian wheat has contributed to a global production forecast of 809.7 million tons for 2025, a 1.3% increase from 2024 and sufficient to meet rising demand while drawing down stocks to 310 million tons by mid-2026.

Traders anticipate additional pressure from forthcoming harvests in Argentina and Australia, where benign conditions have supported yields. 

In contrast, consistent rainfall in parts of China has disrupted its domestic wheat harvest, though overall global crop conditions remain favorable. 

Ole Houe, director of advisory services at IKON Commodities in Sydney, noted that CBOT wheat’s current pricing, now the cheapest globally, positions it to attract buyers in physical markets.

 “U.S. wheat will likely find support in the near future,” Houe stated, though he cautioned that corn and soybeans face sustained downward momentum from U.S. harvest volumes.

Soybean traders eye u.s.-China trade talks amid Brazilian expansion

Soybean markets are particularly sensitive to U.S.-China relations, with Beijing, the largest importer, having halted U.S. purchases in favor of South American suppliers since early 2025 tariffs escalated.

U.S. President Donald Trump tempered expectations over the weekend but expressed confidence in securing a deal during his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea next week, potentially including resumed agricultural purchases. 

This optimism propelled November futures to an eight-week high earlier this week, though prices stabilized near US$10.35 per bushel as traders await concrete outcomes.

Compounding the uncertainty, Brazil’s 2025-26 soybean planting is advancing rapidly, with Conab forecasting a record 177.64 million tons from 49 million hectares, an expansion of 3.6%, potentially surpassing 112 million tons in exports. 

As of mid-October, Paraná and Mato Grosso led progress, with 31% and 18.9% of intended areas sown, respectively, despite initial rainfall delays. This surge, representing 77% of China’s imports through September, further erodes U.S. market share and underscores the high stakes for American farmers.

Corn faces harvest-driven declines

Corn futures mirrored the broader softness, with December contracts at $4.2218 per bushel amid robust U.S. harvest progress. 

Export inspections reached 51.9 million bushels last week, near the midpoint of estimates, with Mexico as the top destination at 17.4 million bushels. 

Global production for 2025 is projected at 1,605 million tons, up 0.3% month-over-month, though utilization growth outpaces supply, tightening ending stocks.

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