Global grain prices rise in April as supplies tighten, FAO
The increase was driven largely by gains in wheat, maize, and rice prices, amid tightening export supplies
GLOBAL -International grain prices continued their upward trend in April, pushing the FAO Food Price Index to 128.3 points, up 1.0% from March and 7.6% higher than the same month last year, according to the latest report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
The increase was driven largely by gains in wheat, maize, and rice prices, amid tightening export supplies, shifting trade policies, and growing weather-related concerns.
The FAO Cereal Price Index rose 1.2% month-on-month, with global wheat prices edging higher due to reduced exportable volumes from the Russian Federation.
Maize markets also firmed, underpinned by seasonally lower stock levels in the United States. Meanwhile, the All Rice Price Index posted gains on the back of strong international demand, particularly for fragrant rice varieties.
Currency fluctuations and uncertainty stemming from tariff policy adjustments added further volatility to global grain markets, the FAO noted.
The UN agency also released its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, revising the 2024 global cereal production forecast slightly downward to 4.848 billion tonnes. However, it projected a record global rice output of 543.6 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season, up 1.5% from the previous year.
Looking ahead, FAO pegged 2025 global wheat production at 795 million tonnes, matching last year’s level. Record harvests are expected in Asia, supported by India and Pakistan, while favourable conditions in southern Europe and North Africa are also expected to lift output.
However, the agency warned that rainfall deficits in northern Europe and the Near East, coupled with persistent drought in the United States, are clouding the global outlook.
In the Southern Hemisphere, harvesting of 2025 coarse grain crops is underway, with higher maize output anticipated in Brazil and South Africa. The United States is also expected to expand its coarse grain plantings by 5%, offering some relief to global feed grain markets later this year.
Despite higher projected usage, world cereal stocks are forecast to drop by 1.9% to 868.2 million tonnes by the end of the 2025 season.
FAO now projects the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio at 29.9%, still considered a comfortable buffer, though the downward trend highlights tightening conditions.
Meanwhile, global cereal utilization is expected to increase by 1.0% to 2.87 billion tonnes in 2024/25, driven by higher feed use of maize in China and the Russian Federation and increased rice consumption in African nations.
The trade outlook, however, is less upbeat. FAO has trimmed its forecast for world cereal trade in 2024/25 to 478.6 million tonnes, marking a 6.8% contraction from the previous season and the lowest level since 2019/20.
Coarse-grain trade is set to decline sharply, reflecting weaker demand from China and reduced maize exports from Brazil. In contrast, global rice trade is projected to grow by 1.2% to a record 60.4 million tonnes.
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