Africa’s wheat market projected to reach 84 MT by 2035, IndexBox reports
For the fourth consecutive year, Africa recorded decline in consumption of wheat, which decreased by -14.8% to 59M tons in 2024.
AFRICA – Africa’s wheat market is expected to return to a growth trajectory over the next decade, with total market volume forecast to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.3% to reach 84 million tons by 2035, according to a new report by IndexBox Market Intelligence.
In value terms, the market is projected to grow at a faster CAGR of 6.5%, reaching an estimated $36.4 billion by the end of the forecast period.
The IndexBox analysis shows that the African wheat market contracted further in 2024, reflecting ongoing structural challenges in domestic production and volatility in import demand.
Wheat consumption declined for the fourth consecutive year, falling by 14.8% to 59 million tons. Market value dropped more sharply, down 25.1% year on year to US$18.1 billion, compared with a peak of US$26 billion recorded earlier in the decade.
Despite the recent downturn, IndexBox expects consumption to resume an upward trend, supported by population growth, urbanisation, and sustained demand for wheat-based foods across North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa.
Egypt dominates consumption and imports
Egypt remains the central pillar of Africa’s wheat market. In 2024, Egypt consumed around 20 million tons of wheat, accounting for approximately 34% of total African consumption.
This was more than three times the volume consumed by Algeria, the second-largest market at 6.9 million tons. Ethiopia ranked third with consumption of 6.3 million tons.
In value terms, Egypt also led the continent, with a wheat market valued at US$7.1 billion. Per capita consumption in Egypt stood at 181 kg per person, the highest level in Africa, alongside Tunisia, while Morocco followed at 161 kg per person.
On the trade side, Egypt imported 10 million tons of wheat in 2024, representing 30% of Africa’s total imports.
Nigeria, Algeria, Morocco and South Africa together accounted for a further 42%. Egypt also paid the highest average import price on the continent, at US$436 per ton, compared with an African average of US$317 per ton.
Production remains structurally constrained
African wheat production remained broadly flat in 2024 at 26 million tons, well below consumption requirements.
Egypt (9.7 million tons), Ethiopia (5.8 million tons) and Morocco (3.4 million tons) together accounted for 72% of total output. Yield levels averaged 2.8 tons per hectare, down 2.4% year on year, while harvested area edged up slightly to 9.4 million hectares.
In value terms, wheat production was estimated at US$12 billion in 2024, reflecting lower prices and limited volume growth.
IndexBox notes that relatively stagnant yields and limited expansion in harvested area continue to constrain supply growth across the continent.
Imports ease, exports led by South Africa
Wheat imports into Africa fell sharply in 2024 to 34 million tons, down 22.6% from the previous year, while import value declined to US$10.6 billion.
Although imports remain structurally high, they have not recovered to the 2020 peak of 50 million tons.
Exports, by contrast, increased strongly. Africa exported around 880,000 tons of wheat in 2024, up 59% year on year.
South Africa dominated regional exports, accounting for 74% of total volumes at 652,000 tons. Export value reached US$258 million, with South Africa supplying US$164 million of this total.
Looking ahead, IndexBox expects rising demand to underpin steady growth in Africa’s wheat market, reinforcing the continent’s continued reliance on imports while highlighting the strategic importance of productivity gains in domestic production.
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