Canada wheat crop set to reach nearly 40MT, 23% above five-year average
The year-on-year increase is primarily due to improved yields for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS), followed by Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD), and winter wheat.
CANADA – Improved yields are projected to push Canada’s wheat production, including durum, to an all-time high of 39.96 million tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The forecast represents an 11% increase year on year and stands 23% above the five-year average, underlining the scale of the anticipated rebound in Canadian wheat output.
If realised, the 2025-26 crop would exceed the previous record of 37.59 million tonnes set in 2013-14 by around 6%, the FAS said in its Feb. 2 update.
The upward revision reflects a combination of stronger yields across key wheat classes and a marginal expansion in planted area.
The year-on-year production increase is primarily attributed to improved yields for Canadian Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat, followed by Canadian Western Amber Durum (CWAD) and winter wheat.
Total wheat yields are estimated to rise to 3.75 tonnes per hectare, compared with 3.37 tonnes per hectare in the previous marketing year. Total wheat area planted increased by 1% to 10.66 million hectares, providing additional support to overall output.
Spring wheat production is forecast to increase by 10.3% to 29.3 million tonnes. This gain is driven by a sharp improvement in yields to 3.95 tonnes per hectare, up from 3.51 tonnes per hectare in 2024.
Higher yields are expected to more than offset a 2.1% decline in harvested area, highlighting the importance of productivity gains in the current outlook.
Durum wheat production is projected to rise 11.8% to 7.1 million tonnes, supported by improved yields and a higher harvest rate.
Average yields are estimated at 2.75 tonnes per hectare, compared with 2.49 tonnes per hectare in the previous season. The stronger durum performance is likely to be closely watched by global pasta and semolina markets, where Canada remains a key supplier.
Winter wheat output is forecast to increase by 17% to 3.6 million tonnes, largely reflecting an expansion in harvested area.
This increase comes despite slightly lower yields, which are projected at 5.75 tonnes per hectare after reaching 5.84 tonnes per hectare in 2024.
On the back of a 3.3 million tonne upward revision to Canada’s 2025-26 wheat production estimate, the FAS raised its wheat exports forecast by 900,000 tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes.
This volume would represent about 67% of domestic supply, reinforcing Canada’s position as one of the world’s leading wheat exporters. For comparison, exports were estimated at 29.3 million tonnes in the previous marketing year and 25.4 million tonnes in 2023-24.
“Canada’s wheat industry is heavily export-orientated, and in the past five years (since 2020-21), Canada has exported 53% to 71% of its total wheat supply each year,” the FAS said.
The higher export projection reflects both increased availability and sustained demand from key international markets.
Domestic wheat consumption in 2025-26 is forecast at 9.35 million tonnes, equivalent to 21% of total supplies.
This would be an increase from 8.4 million tonnes in 2024-25 and broadly in line with the three-year average.
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