Drought cuts oilseeds production outlook despite expansion in planted area
The USDA‘s FASUSDA’s-FAS projects total EU oilseed production at 32.25 million tonnes, down 1% from the previous year, despite planted area rising by almost 7%.
EU – Prolonged heatwaves and drought across western and central Europe are expected to reduce the European Union’s oilseeds production in the 2026/27 marketing year, despite an increase in planted area, according to a report by the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS).
Total EU oilseeds production is forecast at 32.25 million tonnes, down 1% from the previous marketing year, as adverse weather conditions have reduced yields across major crops.
The outlook highlights the growing impact of extreme weather on Europe’s agricultural output and its potential implications for oilseed supplies, processing industries and vegetable oil markets.
According to USDA-FAS, the area planted to oilseeds is expected to rise nearly 7% year on year, while its October update raised the planted-area forecast by 2% from its spring estimates.
However, prolonged hot spells and severe drought in parts of western and central Europe have undermined the benefits of expanded cultivation.
Rapeseed has been the most affected major oilseed crop, with production projected to decline by 5% to 19.7 million tonnes.
Sunflower seed production has also suffered, with Hungary facing particularly significant losses. Soybean crops have likewise been affected by heat and moisture deficits, which have reduced yields in several producing regions.
The weather-related losses follow an exceptionally hot, dry European summer that put crops under severe water stress during critical development stages.
The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre reported in September that prolonged heat accelerated crop development and reduced grain, tuber, and other harvested-product formation and growth.
The production shortfall is expected to increase the EU’s reliance on imported oilseeds. USDA-FAS forecasts that imports will rise by 7% in the 2026/27 marketing year to help meet domestic demand.
Higher import requirements could influence international trade flows as European processors seek supplies from alternative origins.
Despite the lower harvest outlook, oilseed crushing activity is expected to rise above the agency’s April projections.
Favourable crushing margins and vegetable oil prices support expectations of higher processing volumes, with rapeseed and sunflower seed accounting for the largest upward revisions.
Greater crushing activity could help sustain supplies of vegetable oils and protein-rich oilseed meals used in food manufacturing and animal feed.
However, processors will need to manage the risks of reduced domestic availability and greater dependence on imported raw materials.
The outlook underscores European oilseed production’s vulnerability to prolonged drought and extreme temperatures.
While increased planted area reflects continued interest in oilseed cultivation, the latest forecast indicates that weather conditions remain a decisive factor in determining yields and overall production.
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