War-driven fertilizer costs push European farmers to change crop plans

EUROPE – Wheat farmers across Eastern Europe are lowering yield targets as fertilizer prices rise, adding pressure to grain supply outlooks.

Data from S&P Global shows that higher fertilizer costs are already shaping production plans for the next crop cycle. Farmers say the sharp rise in nitrogen fertilizer prices now forces them to reduce input use after months of weak margins.

A wheat grower in southwest Bucharest said the price of urea fertilizer climbed to US$590 per metric ton in Constanta during February. The same product sold near US$520 per metric ton in December and January and even lower during the autumn of 2025.

“The high prices of fertilizers will force us not to aim for big yields right now,” the farmer said.

Wheat requires careful management during key growth stages, and both heat and poor nutrition can lower yield and grain quality. With fertilizer prices climbing, many farmers now cut back on application rates to control costs.

Romania already faced quality problems during the 2025 harvest. Market participants reported low flour strength and widespread insect damage after extreme drought. Lower fertilizer use could increase the risk of another weak harvest.

Land rental prices are also rising, although the increase remains slower than fertilizer costs. “There is a trend to increase but not at a fast pace,” the Romanian farmer added.

Analysts expect Romania’s wheat area to drop by 2.43 percent during the 2026 to 2027 marketing year. Bulgaria could see a sharper fall of 14.61 percent.

Export prices have also moved higher. Wheat with 12.5 percent protein reached US$243 per metric ton on March 12, while wheat with 11.5 percent protein reached US$241 per metric ton.

Broader grain market shifts

Higher fertilizer costs are also changing crop choices across Europe. Corn requires heavy nitrogen inputs, which has pushed some farmers to shift acreage to crops that require less fertilizer.

In Italy, traders say farmers now prefer soybeans over corn because fertilizer costs have increased sharply. One trader said corn acreage has already declined this season, which could raise the country’s need for imports.

Feed producers across the European Union are also adjusting livestock rations. Several market participants say feed wheat now offers a more competitive option than corn.

Industry participants warn that fertilizer supply pressures could intensify over the next two years.

A fertilizer distributor active in the Benelux region said rising costs, carbon border adjustment charges introduced on January 1, and low grain prices have created serious pressure across the sector.

A source at one of the United Kingdom’s largest fertilizer importers warned that shortages could emerge in the coming years.

“Europe will run out of nitrogen fertilizer in spring 2027 due to CBAM and tight global supply,” the source said. “This message needs to get to governments and the EU.”

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