Global wheat production forecast up 1.5M tons as Argentine crop recovers from severe drought: USDA

GLOBAL- World wheat production is forecast at a record 789.8 million tons for 2023/24, up 1.5 million from the 2022/23 production, partly due to the expected recovery of the Argentine crop from a prolonged severe drought, according to the May 2023 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). 

Other countries expected to post record production include Canada, China, the EU, and India, and will likely be offset by sizeable declines in Australia, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan. 

Argentina, expected to register the highest increase, has been experiencing a prolonged drought and will be expected to have a favorable yield caused by the upcoming El Nino weather pattern. 

Additionally, citing a Statistics Canada planting intentions survey the USDA expects near-record production in Canada on expanded planted area. 

Additionally, EU production will likely benefit from above-average precipitation for nearly all EU member countries except Spain and Portugal. 

Offsetting this year’s global production is Russia, whose forecast is lower due to reduced area and yields from last year’s record. 

In Ukraine, production is forecast down by 21 percent from the prior year, mostly due to the war with Russia. 

In addition, production in Australia is likely to decrease significantly as yields revert to average, after three consecutive record crops. The crop will be negatively affected by the predicted El Nino weather. 

According to the report, the projected world consumption is at 791.7 million tons, down 3.0 million compared with last year on reduced feed and residual use. 

The largest feed and residual reductions are in Ukraine, India, Russia, and China. 

Additionally, global trade is projected at 209.7 million tons, a decline of 5.5 million tons from 2022/23, with Russia expected to be the largest exporter, followed by the EU, Canada, Australia, the United States, and Argentina. 

The report also notes that sharp decreases in exports for Australia, India, and Ukraine more than offset increases for Argentina, the EU, and Russia.

Additionally, stocks are expected to decline in Russia and the EU but increase in China and India. If realized, this would represent the lowest global stocks-to-use ratio since 2014/15 with more than half of global stocks held in China.

Corn and oilseeds production forecast higher 

Similarly to wheat, world corn production is forecast to record high, with the largest increases for the United States, Argentina, the EU, China, and Serbia. World corn use is also expected to rise about 4 percent.

For oilseeds, global production is likely to rise by 43.8 million tons to 671.2 million tons mainly on higher soybean production for South America and the United States, higher sunflower seed for the EU, and higher rapeseed for the EU and Canada.

However, according to the WASDE report, the growth in global oilseed trade is slower than the prior decade, increasing less than 1% in 2023/24, as higher soybean exports are mostly offset by lower rapeseed and sunflower seed shipments.

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