Global cereal production set to reach nearly 3B tonnes in 2025/2026: FAO
The FAO attributes the expected bumper crop to higher yields in major staples, maize (corn), rice, and wheat, which collectively account for over half of global caloric intake
GLOBAL – The world is poised for a record-breaking cereal harvest in the 2025/2026 season, with global production projected to reach 2.925 billion tonnes, according to new estimates released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations.
This represents a 2.3% increase from the previous season and continues a seven-year growth trend in global cereal output.
The FAO attributes the expected bumper crop to higher yields in major staples, maize (corn), rice, and wheat, which collectively account for over half of global caloric intake from plant-based sources and contribute more than 40% of dietary energy worldwide.
Wheat production is forecast to rise by 0.9% to 805.3 million tonnes, supported by stable growing conditions and improved output in several key regions.
Meanwhile, global rice production is expected to reach 555.6 million tonnes. Notable gains are anticipated in South and Southeast Asia, particularly India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Vietnam, where increased acreage and favorable weather have buoyed prospects.
Corn output is also on track for substantial growth, with production expected to surpass 1.2 billion tonnes. The FAO cites improved climatic conditions in Brazil, a top exporter, and expanded planting areas in India as major contributors. India and Brazil rank among the world’s top five maize producers.
This anticipated surge in supply comes at a time of easing price pressures in global grain markets. According to the FAO, international cereal prices fell by 1.5% in the past month. However, this is in contrast to an overall 5.8% rise in the agency’s monthly Food Price Index, reflecting higher costs in meat, dairy, and vegetable oils.
The FAO also forecasts that global cereal utilization, encompassing food, animal feed, and industrial uses such as ethanol and bio-based chemicals, will grow modestly by 0.8% to reach 2.9 billion tonnes in the 2025/2026 season.
“Rice consumption is expected to increase further, driven by rising food demand and sustained ethanol production in India,” the agency stated.
Cereal crops are grown across a vast area, with global cultivation now spanning more than 583 million hectares, roughly equivalent to the combined landmass of Algeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ethiopia.
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