Global cereal output to reach record high in 2025:  FAO

GLOBAL – The FAO Food Price Index, a global benchmark for international food commodity prices, averaged 130.1 points in July 2025, up 1.6 percent from June, driven mainly by rising vegetable oil prices.

Despite the monthly increase, the index remained 18.8 percent below its March 2022 peak but 7.6 percent higher than its July 2024 level.

Within the index, the FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 106.5 points in July, a 0.8 percent decline from the previous month.

Falling wheat and sorghum prices outweighed gains in maize and barley. Fresh seasonal wheat harvests in the northern hemisphere exerted downward pressure on prices, although adverse spring wheat conditions in parts of North America provided some support.

The FAO All Rice Price Index fell 1.8 percent, reflecting ample export supplies and subdued import demand.

FAO lifts 2025 global cereal production forecast to record 2.925BT

In its Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, FAO raised its 2025 global cereal production forecast by nearly 14 million tonnes from June to 2.925 billion tonnes, marking a record high and 2.3 percent above last year’s output.

The upward revision was driven by improved prospects for wheat, maize and rice. Global wheat production is now estimated at 805.3 million tonnes, up 0.7 percent from the previous month and 0.9 percent year-on-year, supported by better-than-expected yields in India and Pakistan, with India set for a record harvest.

Coarse grain production is projected at 1.262 billion tonnes, 3.5 percent higher than 2024, buoyed by stronger maize yields in Brazil and an upgraded outlook for India, where robust feed and industrial demand is encouraging a larger planted area.

These gains offset production cuts in Ukraine, due to conflict and dry weather, and in the European Union, where a smaller harvested area has trimmed output expectations.

Global rice production for 2025/26 has been lifted by 4.1 million tonnes since June to a record 555.6 million tonnes (milled basis), 1.0 percent higher than last year. The revision reflects increased planting in India, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Viet Nam, more than compensating for reduced output expectations in Iraq and the United States.

Cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast at 2.9 billion tonnes, 0.8 percent above the previous year. Coarse grain use is seen rising to 1.548 billion tonnes, while wheat use has been revised down for China, Morocco and the United States.

Rice consumption is projected at 550.4 million tonnes, 1.8 percent higher than in 2024/25, supported by growing food use and ethanol production in India.

World cereal stocks by the close of 2025/26 are forecast at 889.1 million tonnes, up 2.2 percent from opening levels, lifting the global stocks-to-use ratio to 30.3 percent. Wheat stocks are projected at 321.0 million tonnes, up 0.9 percent year-on-year, while coarse grain inventories are set to rise 3.6 percent to 353.6 million tonnes. Rice stocks are forecast at a record 214.4 million tonnes, reflecting higher reserves in India, Bangladesh, Ecuador and Pakistan.

According to FAO, the international trade in cereals during 2025/26 is expected to reach 486.9 million tonnes, 1.2 percent higher than in 2024/25. Wheat trade is forecast at 200.0 million tonnes, up 4.0 percent from last season, while maize trade is set to decline by 1.9 percent to 182.8 million tonnes.

Barley shipments are projected to increase by 2.8 percent and sorghum by 15.3 percent. Global rice trade in 2025 is forecast at an all-time high of 60.8 million tonnes, 2.0 percent above 2024.

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