Brazil projects higher corn, wheat, and rice production in 2025/26
Total domestic corn consumption is forecast to rise to 89.5 million tonnes, reflecting stronger demand.
BRAZIL – Brazil is poised to expand its planted area and output of key grains in the 2025-26 season, driven by favorable market conditions and increased investments, according to a recent report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Corn production is forecast to climb to 130 million tonnes from 22.5 million hectares, up from 126 million tonnes and 22 million hectares in 2024-25, while wheat is expected to reach its second-highest yield in history at 9.1 million tonnes, and rice output is projected to stabilize at 8.1 million tonnes, following a notable rebound this season.
The increase in corn sowing is attributed to elevated domestic prices and solid export potential, with exports holding steady at 44 million tonnes for both marketing years.
Total domestic corn consumption is forecast to rise to 89.5 million tonnes, reflecting stronger demand from the animal feed and ethanol sectors. Notably, Brazil saw record livestock slaughter in 2024, and the country now operates 24 ethanol plants using corn, including 18 fully corn-based facilities.
However, the FAS report warned of potential risks due to delayed planting of the second-season corn, which accounts for 80% of Brazil’s output.
In several regions, sowing occurred beyond the optimal window, raising concerns over weather-related yield losses. Some farmers may opt to plant alternative crops like sorghum or winter grains.
Wheat production is forecasted at 9.1 million tonnes, supported by greater investment and favorable sowing conditions, particularly as planting begins in April across most wheat-growing regions.
Wheat consumption is expected to reach 12.2 million tonnes, a slight increase from the previous year. Consequently, imports are projected to decline to 6 million tonnes from 6.5 million tonnes, while exports remain unchanged at 2.6 million tonnes.
The FAS noted that wheat remains a staple in Brazilian diets, and consumption patterns are relatively inelastic even amid price fluctuations. Essential items like bread remain widely consumed regardless of broader market trends.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s rice sector is rebounding from previous challenges. The ongoing 2024-25 harvest is expected to yield 8.08 million tonnes, a sharp rise from 7.2 million tonnes in 2023-24, thanks to favorable weather.
This surge in supply is easing domestic prices. For 2025-26, rice output is projected to remain stable at 8.1 million tonnes, while exports are forecast to rise to 1.4 million tonnes, up 8% from 1.3 million tonnes in the previous cycle. This increase is driven by Brazil’s growing competitiveness in international rice markets.
The area planted with rice in 2024-25 was revised upward to 1.7 million hectares, a 6.3% increase over previous estimates. Planting for the 2025-26 cycle is expected to begin around September.
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