Wheat consumption is forecast to rebound in 2025-26 to 109 million tonnes, recovering from last year’s dip to 104 million tonnes.
INDIA – India is poised for its third consecutive record wheat harvest in the 2025-26 marketing year, with production forecast to reach 115 million tonnes from 32.6 million hectares, according to the latest report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
This marks an increase from 113.2 million tonnes harvested on 31.8 million hectares in 2024-25.
According to the USDA, Favorable weather conditions, including a timely onset of winter in mid-November and sufficient irrigation, have bolstered wheat prospects.
Farmers also adopted more heat-tolerant wheat varieties after experiencing crop stress in previous seasons due to early summer onset. These proactive measures, encouraged by state governments, have contributed significantly to this year’s strong outlook.
Wheat consumption is forecast to rebound in 2025-26 to 109 million tonnes, recovering from last year’s dip to 104 million tonnes, as domestic supply stabilizes and prices remain steady.
However, the export ban on wheat and wheat products is expected to continue, driven by inflation concerns and a 40% import duty that discourages external trade.
India’s wheat milling landscape remains largely fragmented, with the organized milling sector comprising 1,300 to 1,400 medium-to-large flour mills, operating at 55-60% capacity and processing 18-20 million tonnes annually. The bulk of wheat is milled in small neighborhood mills for household use.
Meanwhile, corn production continues to climb to a projected 42 million tonnes, and rice output dips slightly to 143 million tonnes following nine consecutive record years.
Rice production is projected to decline slightly to 143 million tonnes, down by 2 million tonnes year-on-year.
Despite this drop, exports are forecast to reach a record 24 million tonnes, including 15 million tonnes of coarse rice, 6 million basmati, and 3 million broken rice, as the government releases surplus stocks to stabilize domestic markets.
Rice remains a cornerstone of India’s food security policy, accounting for 42% of the nation’s total grain output. Domestic consumption and residual use are estimated at 124 million tonnes, 2.5% higher than last year, driven by greater availability of subsidized rice and near-record production levels.
On the corn front, the sector is witnessing sustained growth, with the 2025-26 harvest forecast at 42 million tonnes, up from 40 million tonnes the previous year.
Corn area reached a record 11.5 million hectares in 2024-25 and is expected to expand further, supported by India’s ethanol blending program and rising demand from the feed, starch, and ethanol industries.
Corn consumption is projected to grow to 42.7 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 40.3 million tonnes in the previous year and 38.9 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The USDA attributes this surge to an expanding middle class and increasing demand for animal protein, particularly poultry and dairy.
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