Black Sea wheat prices hit three-month high as weather, logistics tighten supply

RUSSIA – The Black Sea wheat market rose to its highest level in three months in early February, as severe weather risks and mounting logistical disruptions tightened supply and lifted market sentiment, according to Platts, part of S&P Global.

Platts assessed the Milling Wheat Marker (MWM) at US$230.75 per metric ton on Feb. 3, the highest level since Nov. 18, reflecting growing concern over extreme cold conditions across key producing regions and persistent transport delays at major export hubs.

Market participants are increasingly focused on Russia’s winter wheat belt, where temperatures are forecast to fall as low as minus 30 degrees Celsius.

The cold spell has raised fears of crop damage, while weak cash flow has discouraged farmer selling. “There is so much bad weather and no cash flow for farmers,” said a Russia-based exporter, underscoring concerns over winter wheat output and limited near-term availability.

CPT bids were reported between 15,000 and 15,700 rubles per metric ton, equivalent to US$196–US$205 per metric ton.

Currency movements have added further complexity. The recent strengthening of the ruble, which reached 75 rubles per dollar last week, has forced exporters to lower local purchase prices to protect margins.

Despite this, Russian wheat maintained a premium in the export market. On Feb. 3, Russian wheat was assessed at US$232 per metric ton, a US$1.25 per metric ton premium to the MWM.

Ukrainian wheat was assessed at US$228 per metric ton, representing a US$2.75 per metric ton discount to the marker and widening its spread against Russian 12.5% wheat to US$4–US$5 per metric ton, the widest since November.

Logistics remain a dominant constraint across the Black Sea. Vessels at Russian ports are now facing loading delays of seven to 15 days, limiting prompt shipments.

Demand for high-protein Black Sea wheat remains firm, particularly ahead of the Ramadan period, as buyers seek alternatives to low- and mid-protein supplies from the Southern Hemisphere.

Despite the recent rally, Black Sea wheat prices have largely traded within a narrow range since September, fluctuating around US$6 per metric ton.

Currency volatility, margin pressure, continued logistical disruptions, including Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports, and strong import demand from major buyers such as Egypt and Turkey have shaped market direction.

Tender activity has provided intermittent support, even as global wheat supply remains ample. The only notable spike this season occurred in August, when the MWM reached US$242 per metric ton due to harvest delays and slow exports.

“Logistics is the talk of the market,” said a Turkish broker at the World Global Grain and Pulses Forum in Dubai. Coaster shipments into Turkey have been particularly affected by vessel shortages and congestion around the Kerch Strait.

The CIF Marmara spread to the MWM widened to US$19.25 per metric ton, the highest since October.

Shipments from Azov to Marmara are now taking two weeks to a month, compared with the usual 10 days, with February trades reported at US$251 per metric ton and a US$3 per metric ton spread to 13.5% protein wheat.

“There are no vessels to load,” said a Turkish seller, pointing to limited market offers.

European wheat markets have also shown volatility, influenced by the euro’s strength against the US dollar since mid-January.

Romanian and Bulgarian traders reported strong demand since the start of 2026, with some sellers already locking in forward deals.

The CVB 12.5% market was assessed at US$236 per metric ton on Feb. 3, a US$6.75 per metric ton premium to the MWM, while 11.5% CVB wheat traded at a US$2 per metric ton discount to 12.5%.

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