Russia brings back wheat export tax as tighter global supply keeps buyers on watch

RUSSIA – Russia has brought back its wheat export tax after more than two months without the levy, a move that comes as the global wheat market faces tighter supply and steady demand.

From July 8 to July 15, Russian wheat exports will face a tax of 370.1 rubles, equivalent to US$4.87, per tonne, according to Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture. The tax had remained at zero since April 22 but returned after the export reference price increased from US$233.8 to US$239.4 per tonne, passing the level that activates the duty.

Russia introduced the variable export tax system in 2021. The amount changes every week based on export contract prices registered on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The duty equals 70% of the difference between a government reference price and the export price. As export prices rise above the set level, the tax also increases. When prices fall below that point, the levy returns to zero. Russia uses the system to manage exports while supporting its farming sector.

The latest change comes as the world wheat market faces lower supplies during the 2026/27 season. The US Department of Agriculture projects global wheat production at 820 million tonnes, down 3% from the previous season.

Global consumption is expected to reach about 824.5 million tonnes, keeping demand above production and putting pressure on available stocks. The agency also expects world wheat trade to fall by 6% to 213.3 million tonnes as exports decline from suppliers such as Australia and imports ease in markets including Turkey, Morocco and Nigeria.

For wheat buyers, including many African countries, the return of the Russian tax could slightly increase import costs. Russia remains the world’s largest wheat exporter and expects to ship 47 million tonnes during the 2026/27 season, according to USDA estimates.

Demand for Russian wheat continues to grow across Africa. Data from Russia’s agricultural export agency Agroexport shows that East African Community countries increased wheat purchases from Russia by 26% to 3.5 million tonnes during the 2025/26 season. Tanzania has expanded its purchases alongside Kenya, Egypt and Sudan.

Russia has also increased shipments to the Middle East. Data from the Rusagrotrans analytical center shows the region accounted for 37% of Russia’s wheat exports during the 2025/26 marketing season, up from 28% a year earlier. Higher exports to Turkey, Iran and Israel supported the increase, while Africa’s share fell to 32% from 36%, although shipments to Sudan reached a record 1.4 million tonnes.

Jordan has also moved to secure its wheat supply. “Our current stock levels are secure, and we have additional quantities already contracted and in transit,” the country’s Minister of Industry, Trade, and Supply said. He added that wheat reserves can cover local demand for about 5.5 months, with incoming shipments expected to provide another four months of supply.

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