West Africa’s cereal production to decline by 700,000T in 2024: FAO
WEST AFRICA – According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in its Crop Prospects and World Food Situation report released on November 3, 2023, cereal output in West Africa is projected to fall to 73.7 million tonnes, a decrease of 700,000 tonnes from the previous year.
While this figure represents a modest 2.2% increase over the five-year average, it marks a notable dip in overall production.
According to the report, the decline is largely attributed to unfavorable climatic conditions.
The FAO reports that rainfall deficits during the critical growing season (July to September) have significantly impacted yields in key cereal-producing countries such as Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, Ghana, and Togo.
Moreover, intense flooding in parts of the Sahel, particularly Burkina Faso and Mali, led to localized crop losses.
The situation in Nigeria, the region’s largest cereal producer, is also concerning, as both drought and flooding have severely hindered crop growth, affecting the 37% of West African cereal production that the country contributes.
“In Nigeria, cereal production is forecast to be below average in 2024. The poor production outlook is due to a combination of factors, including dry spells in the southern and central regions, which limited planting and led to wilting and dwarfing of crops, while widespread flooding in the north caused crop damage and losses,” the report said.
The decline in production comes as the region is already grappling with high levels of food insecurity.
The FAO estimates that up to 49.5 million people in West Africa may face acute food insecurity in 2024, particularly during the lean season when food stocks are traditionally low.
Economic challenges such as currency devaluation, high inflation, and elevated input costs further strain access to food. Food prices in the region are already high, with nutritious diets costing six times more than energy-based alternatives in some areas, limiting affordability for vulnerable populations.
Recently, AFEX, a pan-African organization championing efficient trade and wealth creation through the commodities market in Africa, warned that Nigeria is bracing for a historic surge in food prices in 2025, driven by reduced domestic production, rising export demands, and increased logistics costs.
The “AFEX 2024 Wet Season Crop Production Report Nigeria” surveyed over 47,000 farmers across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, assessing key crops such as cashew, cocoa, soybean, sorghum, sesame, paddy rice, ginger, and maize.
AFEX projects that price increases across these staple crops could significantly impact Nigeria’s food security, with inflationary pressures set to rise in the 2024/2025 season.
According to FAO, the 2024 harvest shortfall will likely deepen the reliance on imports, putting pressure on local markets and increasing the cost of food.
This scenario is compounded by a broader economic crisis in the region, where inflation and poor infrastructure continue to hinder food distribution and accessibility.
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