USDA reports highest US wheat crop since 2016
The all-wheat harvested area in 2025 was estimated at 37,241,000 acres, down 1,392,000 acres, or 3.6%, from 38,633,000 acres in 2024.
USA – The United States wheat crop in 2025 reached its largest volume in nearly a decade, supported by record-high yields, according to the Small Grains Summary 2025 issued September 30 by the National Agricultural Statistics Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Total wheat production was estimated at 1.98 billion bushels (53.9 million tonnes), an increase of 57.5 million bushels (1.56 million tonnes) from the August forecast and 3% above the upwardly revised 2024 output of 1.97 billion bushels (53.8 million tonnes).
The crop was the largest from 2.3 billion bushels (62.6 million tonnes) in 2016, and compared with a recent five-year average of 1.78 billion bushels (48.4 million tonnes).
The harvested area was pegged at 37.2 million acres, down 3.6% from 2024, while yields surged to a record 53.3 bushels per acre, surpassing the previous high of 52.7 bushels per acre set in 2016.
Commenting on the figures, Mike O’Dea, risk management consultant for StoneX in Kansas City, Missouri, said, “The number is OK, but I was a little surprised in that, historically, we usually see the numbers come down a little bit. Probably a little bearish, wheat futures made new lows this morning (Oct. 1), but we’ve kind of come back.”
According to him, the Matif wheat bounced nicely, hit a new low, and rallied to close higher. Spreads are a little firmer, Chicago wheat’s trying to come back and corn.
Within the classifications, the USDA estimated spring wheat, other than durum, at 496.8 million bushels (13.5 million tonnes), down 8.7% from 2024, despite strong yields of 51.7 bushels per acre, the second-highest on record.
Hard red spring wheat production was placed at 458.3 million bushels (12.5 million tonnes), up 10% from last year though still below the five-year average of 517 million bushels (14.1 million tonnes).
Durum wheat output climbed to 86.2 million bushels (2.35 million tonnes), 7.7% higher than 2024, supported by expanded harvested area and improved yields. Winter wheat production was estimated at 1.40 billion bushels (38.2 million tonnes), a 3.5% increase from the previous year, with record-high production in Idaho and record yields achieved in Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, Missouri, South Carolina, and Texas.
Despite the larger harvest, analysts suggested the overall impact on prices may be muted. Market direction will continue to be influenced by global dynamics and export competition, particularly as major wheat suppliers in the Black Sea region and South America remain active in international trade.
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