USDA cuts Ukraine wheat export outlook as global supply rises

UKRAINE – The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s wheat exports for the 2025 to 2026 season, even as global wheat supply continues to grow.

In its April report, the USDA raised its forecast for global wheat production by 2.03 million tons to 844.15 million tons. At the same time, it slightly reduced the outlook for global wheat exports to 221.88 million tons. Final global stocks rose by 6 million tons to 283.12 million tons, pointing to ample supply.

Ukraine’s wheat harvest forecast stayed at 24 million tons, but the USDA cut export expectations by 1 million tons to 12.5 million tons. Ending stocks in the country rose to 3.93 million tons.

“The export reduction reflects shifting trade flows and strong competition among key suppliers,” analysts noted in the report.

Other major exporters showed mixed trends. Russia increased its export forecast to 44.5 million tons, while Australia’s exports dropped slightly to 26.5 million tons. The European Union raised its production outlook to 145.11 million tons, with exports steady at 30.5 million tons.

In the United States, wheat production is expected to reach 54.01 million tons, with exports unchanged at 24.49 million tons. Ending stocks edged up to 25.52 million tons.

Oilseed supply weighs on prices

The USDA also raised its forecast for global oilseed production for the same season by 0.67 million tons to 698.21 million tons. Higher output of sunflower and cotton offset a drop in peanut production.

Global soybean production increased slightly to 427.41 million tons, while consumption rose to 425.88 million tons due to stronger processing in the United States. Export forecasts held steady at 187.2 million tons.

“Larger supplies continue to keep pressure on oilseed prices despite steady demand,” market observers said.

Brazil and Paraguay are expected to ship more soybeans, while exports from the United States may fall to 41.9 million tons. Global ending stocks dipped slightly to 124.8 million tons.

Market prices showed small gains after the report. May soybean futures in Chicago rose 0.3 percent to US$428.2 per ton. Canola futures reached about US$512 per ton, while rapeseed prices in Paris stood at about US$581.3 per ton.

Sunflower seed production also increased, with global output now set at 54.74 million tons. In Ukraine, local prices rose to about 31,000 to 31,500 UAH per ton, which is roughly US$750 to US$762 per ton, up from last month.

Oil price swings continue to shape the market. “If oil prices fall to US$85 to US$90 per barrel, vegetable oil prices will likely drop as well,” analysts warned.

With supply levels high, many farmers may choose to sell early while prices remain firm.

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