US soybean shipments slump in Q1 2025/2026
US soybean shipments in Q1 2025-26 dropped to their lowest level in over a decade, driven by delayed Chinese purchases, Brazilian competition, and global oversupply.
USA – US soybean shipments fell sharply in the first quarter of the 2025/2026 marketing year, dropping to their lowest level in more than a decade, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Grain Transportation Report (Jan. 1, 2026).
Total exports between September and November reached just 12.3 million tonnes, down 46% from the five-year average.
This slump, the slowest since 2011-12, underscores trade tensions and shifting global dynamics in the US$150 billion soybean market.
Of the total, 1.4 million tonnes were containerized soybeans, up five percentage points from the average.
In most years, US soybean exports peak between October and November, when they are priced competitively with South American soybeans, the GTR noted.
China, historically the largest buyer of US soybeans, delayed purchases until late October amid escalating trade disputes, receiving only 49,000 tonnes in one cargo by November’s end.
Regional disparities exacerbated the drop: Pacific Northwest (PNW) shipments fell 90% to 700,000 tonnes due to fewer vessel loadings, while Mississippi Gulf exports dipped 35%, according to the GTR.
A late-November US-China deal promises 12 million tonnes through December 2025 and 25 million annually through 2028, but early momentum remains stalled.
Ships loading soybeans for export from PNW export terminals totalled 13 compared with 94 in the first quarter of 2024-25, according to the GTR.
Though historically much smaller than either Mississippi Gulf or PNW soybean shipments, first-quarter soybean shipments from the Texas Gulf and rail shipments to Mexico were above average.
Mexico emerged as the leading destination, absorbing 1.7 million tonnes (21% above average), with 60% via rail from Texas Gulf ports, up 67% on favorable freight rates.
Containerized shipments rose slightly to 1.4 million tonnes, signaling adaptation to logistics constraints.
Soybean shipments increased from the Texas Gulf because ocean freight rates were lower from that region than from the PNW to many destinations, though not to East Asian destinations, according to the GTR.
At 1.2 million tonnes, first-quarter soybean shipments from the Texas Gulf were 67% above average and the largest since the first quarter of 2020-21.
Despite the weak start, USDA officials note that export volumes could recover later in the marketing year if Chinese demand stabilizes and global trade flows rebalance.
However, the first-quarter slump underscores the vulnerability of US soybeans to shifting international dynamics.
US soybean shipments in Q1 2025-26 dropped to their lowest level in over a decade, driven by delayed Chinese purchases, Brazilian competition, and global oversupply.
Industry leaders stress the need for diversification and clarity on domestic biofuel policy to safeguard farmer incomes.
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