Turkey’s wheat, barley output to drop in 2025/26 as drought spurs surge in grain imports: USDA

TURKEY – Wheat production in Turkey is projected to decline by 15% year-on-year to 16.3 million tonnes in the 2025–26 marketing year, according to the latest forecast by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The sharp drop, driven by prolonged drought conditions and erratic weather, is expected to significantly increase the country’s grain import needs.

Although wheat planting area has expanded slightly, poor weather across key growing regions including central and southeastern Anatolia, has taken a toll on yields.

The FAS report highlights that low rainfall, warmer-than-average winter temperatures, and an unseasonal spring frost have reduced yield potential, particularly for dryland wheat, where declines of 15% to 30% are anticipated compared to last season.

“Production could fall even lower depending on the extent of the drought damage,” the FAS said

In response to the expected shortfall, Turkey is forecast to import 10.3 million tonnes of wheat in 2025–26, more than triple the 3.2 million tonnes imported last year. If realized, this would represent the highest wheat import volume since the 2019–20 marketing year.

The increase is expected to support Turkey’s robust flour and pasta industries, as well as millers serving domestic consumption.

Barley production is expected to decline even more steeply, dropping by 28% year-on-year to 5.1 million tonnes.

Barley is more vulnerable to drought impacts, as nearly all production is rain-fed. The FAS forecasts barley imports will surge to 1.6 million tonnes in 2025–26, up from just 150,000 tonnes the year before, the largest import volume since 2.8 million tonnes were imported in 2021–22.

 “This prediction assumes that the government will intervene in the market, as they have done in the past, by either cutting tariffs, establishing a tariff quota or by having the Turkish Grain Board import and resell barley to end users,” it states.

To cushion farmers, the Turkish Grain Board has raised procurement prices for wheat and barley by over 40%. Despite this, imported grain remains more competitively priced. As of June, imported wheat was averaging US$240 per tonne on a CIF basis, compared to domestic wheat at US$326 per tonne. A similar gap exists in the barley market, with imports at US$235 per tonne versus local prices near US$256.

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