Sub-Saharan Africa to import more maize in 2024/2025: USDA

AFRICA – Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is projected to import approximately 4.7 million tonnes of maize in the 2024/2025 marketing year, marking the second consecutive year of increased imports and representing the third-highest level since 2013/2014, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

This uptick in imports underscores the region’s growing reliance on external sources to meet its maize demand.

Despite being the most produced cereal in SSA, maize production is anticipated to decline to 80.2 million tonnes in 2024/2025, down from 83.6 million tonnes in the previous year, reaching its lowest volume since 2020.

This decrease is attributed to various factors, including adverse weather conditions and challenges in agricultural practices.

Within the region’s leading maize producers, South Africa, Nigeria, and Ethiopia, which collectively account for 45% of SSA’s total supply, mixed outcomes are expected.

South Africa’s maize production is forecasted to decline significantly to 13.4 million tonnes in the 2023/2024 marketing year, a 22% decrease from the previous season, primarily due to a mid-summer drought.

The Crop Estimates Committee’s November 2024 report estimated white maize production at just over six million tonnes, a 29.3% decrease from the prior year, and yellow maize at 6.716 million tonnes, marking a 15.4% decline.

In contrast, Ethiopia’s maize supply is projected to see a modest increase of 2%, reaching 10.2 million tonnes. Nigeria’s production is expected to remain stable at approximately 11 million tonnes.

The rising import levels are primarily intended for human consumption, as maize remains a staple food across West, South, and East Africa, with consumption rates comparable to the combined intake of rice and wheat.

Unlike in Europe and America, where maize is extensively used for animal feed, its utilization for livestock in SSA is limited, except in countries like South Africa.

The increasing demand for maize in SSA is driven by demographic growth and dietary shifts. Studies suggest that maize demand in the region could more than double in the next 30 years.

To address the supply-demand gap, experts advocate for the adoption of yield-improving agricultural practices and technologies to enhance productivity and reduce dependence on imports.

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