MOROCCO – Morocco is confronting a significant reduction in domestic wheat production due to severe drought conditions, leading to an anticipated increase in wheat imports to over 5 million tons for the 2024-2025 season.
Historically, France has been Morocco’s primary wheat supplier, but this year, French wheat exports are projected to decline by 26% because of adverse weather affecting their harvest.
As a result, Morocco’s wheat imports from France are projected to decline sharply, from 2.8 million tons in previous seasons to just 1.5 million tons for the 2024-2025 season. This situation has prompted Moroccan importers to seek alternative sources to ensure a stable supply of wheat.
One of the key developments in Morocco’s wheat import strategy has been the rise of Russia as a prominent supplier.
By August 2024, Morocco had imported about 1.92 million quintals of soft wheat from Russia, a notable increase compared to the 0.33 million quintals imported from France during the same period
Omar Yacoubi, president of the National Federation of Grain and Legume Traders (FNCL), attributed this shift to Russia’s competitive quality-price ratio.
However, he emphasized that this adjustment is likely “purely cyclical,” as Morocco has traditionally relied on French wheat and is not expected to permanently abandon its relationship with France. Still, Russia’s competitive edge has made it a critical partner in the short term.
To ensure a stable wheat supply, Morocco is also exploring imports from other European countries, including Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states.
While global wheat prices have declined, they remain above Morocco’s target price of 270 dirhams per quintal.
Future price reductions may depend on cereal harvests in the Southern Hemisphere, which are expected to begin in December.
According to the Moroccan government’s latest figures, the country’s wheat and barley production dropped by 43% in the 2024/25 marketing year (MY) due to severe drought.
The total production for 2024 includes 1.77 million metric tons (MMT) of common wheat, 0.70 MMT of durum wheat, and 0.65 MMT of barley. These numbers mark a sharp decline from the previous season, with Morocco’s agricultural sector feeling the ongoing effects of climate challenges.
In response to reduced domestic production and strong global wheat prices, the Moroccan government has continued supporting wheat imports by offering a flat-rate subsidy.
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