Middle East conflict triggers global fertilizer crisis, FAO warns of impending harvest failure

GLOBAL – The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has issued a dire warning regarding the stability of the global agrifood system as the ongoing 2026 Middle East crisis continues to paralyze critical trade routes.

Speaking from the agency’s headquarters in Rome, FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu warned international leaders that a severe shortage of fertilizers, driven by military disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, is set to drastically reduce crop yields and tighten food supplies well into 2027.

The conflict, which escalated in early February 2026, has effectively severed one of the world’s most vital maritime arteries for agricultural inputs.

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic chokepoint through which approximately 30% of the world’s internationally traded fertilizers transit.

Since the outbreak of hostilities involving the Persian Gulf states, tanker traffic through the corridor has plummeted by more than 90%.

According to FAO data, the disruption has stalled an estimated 3 to 4 million tonnes of fertilizer trade per month.

The region is a primary global source of nitrogen-based fertilizers, accounting for roughly 35% of global urea exports.

With production facilities in the Gulf either damaged or shuttered due to security risks, the global supply chain is facing a “second wave” of economic shocks that could prove more devastating than the initial energy price spikes.

The impact on market prices has been immediate and severe. Global urea prices surged by nearly 46% between February and March 2026 alone, while other essential inputs like ammonia and diammonium phosphate have seen double-digit increases.

Unlike the energy sector, the fertilizer industry lacks internationally coordinated strategic reserves, making it far more vulnerable to sudden supply shocks.

The FAO emphasized that agriculture operates on a strict crop calendar that cannot be paused; if fertilizers do not reach farmers during specific planting windows, the resulting yield losses are irreversible, regardless of whether trade routes reopen later in the year.

The most acute risks are concentrated in import-dependent regions across Africa and Southeast Asia, where farmers are already struggling with high operational costs and climate-related challenges.

The FAO warns that the lack of affordable nutrients could push an additional 45 million people into acute hunger by mid-year.

To prevent a total collapse of the domestic agricultural sectors in these vulnerable nations, the FAO is calling for the immediate development of alternative trade routes and increased financial support for smallholder farmers to maintain productivity amidst the surging input costs.

The countries most at risk are those highly dependent on fertilizer imports and already facing food insecurity or economic fragility, notably parts of Africa and Asia, as well as import‑dependent Middle Eastern states.

The FAO recommends immediate actions, including developing alternative trade routes, strengthening market monitoring, providing targeted financial support to farmers, and scaling emergency assistance to vulnerable populations to mitigate near‑term food security risks.

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in April, a 1.6% rise on March and the third consecutive monthly increase, with the meat price sub-index reaching a record high of 129.4 points.

In response, the FAO called for alternative trade routes, a ban on export restrictions, and long-term structural transformation to reduce dependence on concentrated supply corridors and fossil fuel-based agricultural inputs.

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