Egypt targets full wheat self-sufficiency for subsidized bread by 2028

EGYPT – Egypt aims to achieve self-sufficiency in wheat for its heavily subsidized bread programme in 2028, Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk told Reuters.

Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk revealed the updated timeline, noting that while the previous goal was set for 2027, a more realistic three-year roadmap is now in place to ensure the sustainability of the country’s most vital food security pillar.

The draft budget for marketing year 2026/27 estimates that Egypt needs about 8.6 million metric tonnes of wheat to supply the subsidized bread scheme, underscoring the scale of the challenge for a country long among the world’s largest wheat importers.

The government has offered competitive procurement prices to encourage planting and has signalled plans to purchase up to 5 million tonnes from domestic producers this season, a move intended to narrow the import gap and support rural incomes.

Procurement so far this season has exceeded last year’s pace, with official data showing state purchases of 1.39 million tonnes as of early May, up 17% year‑on‑year, though still below the 1.6 million tonnes bought by the same date in 2024.

To reach this milestone, the Ministry of Agriculture is deploying a multi-pronged strategy focused on both “horizontal” and “vertical” expansion.

On the horizontal front, Egypt is aggressively reclaiming desert land through mega-projects like the New Delta and the Toshka project, which aim to add millions of feddans to the national crop area.

Vertically, the state is partnering with research centers to distribute high-yielding, heat-resistant seed varieties to farmers. These “super-seeds” are designed to withstand the increasingly harsh North African summers while maximizing output per acre.

Furthermore, the government is leaning into financial incentives to win over local growers.

To advance the goal, cultivated wheat area has expanded to more than 10 million feddans, around 4.2 million hectares, with total cropped area reaching 17.5 million feddans.

Egypt has also adjusted its procurement strategy, shifting to earlier state purchases to stabilize supply chains and shield the subsidized bread programme from international price shocks.

During the current wheat procurement campaign, which began in mid-April, the government intends to purchase 5 million tonnes of wheat from Egyptian farmers.

Official data shows Egypt had already bought around 3.5 million tonnes since the start of the local harvest, compared with 3 million tonnes in the same period last year.

Minister Farouk noted that greater self-sufficiency would allow Egypt to time its international purchases more strategically, buying when prices are favourable rather than under pressure.

Egypt’s wheat production for the 2024-25 marketing year was estimated at 9.2 million tonnes, slightly higher than the 9 million tonnes recorded the previous year, indicating steady, if gradual, progress toward the target.

As ⁠of 5th May, the government had bought ​1.39 million tons, up by 17% from 1.19 million tons in the same period last year, but down by 13% ​from ‌1.6 million tons in 2024, according to official ⁠data seen by Reuters.

If procurement targets are met and yields hold, Egypt could significantly cut import volumes for the subsidized bread program by 2028, though experts caution that complete independence from imports would remain challenging without continued policy support and favourable growing conditions.

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