Global grains, oilseeds trade hits US$330B in 2023/24 period – Rabobank
Since the launch of the grains and oilseeds map in 2003, significant global changes have occurred, leading to the emergence of new market dynamics.
GLOBAL – The trade of grains and oilseeds is steadily increasing, reaching approximately 880 million tonnes in the 2023-24 period, with an estimated value of $330 billion, according to the sixth edition of RaboResearch’s global grains and oilseeds map.
Over the past five years, trade volumes have increased with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.2% for grains and 2.4% for oilseeds.
However, this growth is slower compared to the 7% CAGR observed in the previous decade, as noted by Rabobank.
Wheat remains the most widely traded grain worldwide, though the market is fragmented, with a significantly larger number of exporters and importers.
In 2023-24, the top 10 wheat importers accounted for 44% of global wheat trade, contrasted with 65% for palm oil, 67% for corn, and 89% for soybeans.
Wheat is the most consumed and produced staple crop, harvested nearly every month in various parts of the world.
However, global wheat imports have grown at a slower rate compared to other crops, with just a 3% CAGR, while corn, palm oil, and soybeans saw CAGRs of 4%, 4%, and 6%, respectively.
Russia has emerged as the world’s leading wheat exporter, significantly surpassing its competitors.
Among top importers, Egypt is the largest wheat importer in Africa, while Turkey increasingly functions as a hub for wheat imports and re-exports.
Additionally, China has ramped up its wheat imports due to increased domestic consumption over the past five years.
Corn is the second most traded grain globally, with an average of 193 million tonnes traded between 2021 and 2023.
Unlike wheat, corn production and exports are highly concentrated in four countries— the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine— which together account for approximately 90% of the global corn trade.
The top 10 corn importers have shifted since 2003, with emerging markets now accounting for 70% of corn imports, compared to 30% for developed countries.
In Rabobank’s first map, the distribution was 55% for emerging markets and 45% for developed ones.
The United States remains the top corn exporter; however, Brazil is closing the gap. Brazilian exports have increased at an 11% CAGR since the 2001-02 period, in contrast to just 1% for the United States.
Soybeans are the most widely traded oilseeds globally, with an average annual production of 168 million tonnes between 2021 and 2023.
Soybeans are typically produced in regions far from where they are consumed, primarily in Brazil, the United States, and other South American countries. The largest importers are Asia and the European Union.
Looking ahead over the next decade, several factors are expected to influence global grain and oilseed trade flows.
On the demand side, the growing population in Sub-Saharan Africa will likely lead to increased wheat imports.
Meanwhile, China might experience a slowdown—or even a decline—in soybean imports, according to Rabobank.
Changes in biofuel policies may impact oilseed crushing dynamics, and the implementation of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is already reshaping traders’ business models.
Additionally, weather conditions can significantly affect crop yields and price volatility. A redistribution of power among various players will also shift trade relationships and strategic priorities throughout the value chain.
Declining birth rates globally, with the exception of Africa, raise uncertainty over future demand growth, according to Rabobank.
Sign up to HERE receive our email newsletters with the latest news and insights from Africa and around the world, and follow us on our WhatsApp channel for updates.
