Ethiopia’s wheat production to reach 6.5 MMT in 2025/26, up 5%: USDA

ETHIOPIA – Ethiopia’s wheat production is forecast to reach 6.5 million metric tons (MT) in Marketing Year (MY) 2025/26, marking a 5% increase over the estimated 6.2 million MT in MY 2024/25, according to the latest report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The growth stems from improved yields, modest expansion in harvested area, and greater access to key inputs such as high-yielding seeds, fertilizers, mechanization, and enhanced irrigation, particularly in lowland areas.

However, rising input costs remain a significant constraint, especially for smallholder farmers who dominate the country’s wheat sector.

The production boost is expected despite ongoing market concerns about wheat shortages and elevated prices. According to the Government of Ethiopia, wheat production during the 2024/25 season reached an estimated 30 million MT across 7.7 million hectares under both rain-fed and irrigated systems.

This figure, however, likely reflects a cumulative aggregation of seasonal output or includes other statistical classifications, as it significantly exceeds the USDA estimate and more than quadruples the reported volume for 2021/22.

Post forecasts wheat consumption in MY 2025/26 at 7.82 million MT, a 3% increase over the previous year, driven by urbanization (growing at 4.8% annually), population growth (2.7% annually), and shifting dietary patterns favoring processed wheat products such as bread, pasta, and pastries.

While wheat is Ethiopia’s third most consumed grain after teff and corn, per capita consumption is projected to decline slightly to 51 kg in 2025, down from 53 kg in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024, annual per capita wheat intake fell by about 1% per year.

Despite the growing domestic demand, wheat imports are forecast to decline by 24% to 1.3 million MT in MY 2025/26, down from 1.7 million MT in MY 2023/24, a year that saw an 80% surge in wheat imports over the previous year and far surpassed the five-year average of 1.4 million MT. The decline in imports reflects Ethiopia’s rising domestic production and self-sufficiency drive.

Corn outlook steady

According to USDA, corn production is expected to reach 10.3 million MT in MY 2025/26, up by 1% from the 10.2 million MT estimated in MY 2024/25.

Ethiopia maintains 2.5 million hectares under corn cultivation, with yield improvements attributed to hybrid seed use, better agronomic practices, and favorable weather conditions. The recent approval of genetically engineered (GE) corn varieties, capable of delivering up to 60% higher yields, is expected to further enhance future output.

Corn consumption is projected at 10.35 million MT in MY 2025/26, mainly for food and livestock feed. Ethiopia neither exports nor imports corn grain, although some informal cross-border trade exists.

Sorghum sees slight decline

Sorghum production is projected at 4.06 million MT for MY 2025/26, slightly down from 4.10 million MT the previous year. Harvested area is expected to shrink to 1.64 million hectares as land is increasingly diverted to high-value crops like sesame, soybeans, and cotton.

Sorghum consumption is forecast at 4.30 million MT, a decline driven by reduced production and rising domestic prices. Imports are projected to fall 23% to 200,000 MT, primarily due to fluctuations in food aid demand.

On the other hand, barley production is expected to increase to 2.38 million MT in MY 2025/26, a 3.5% rise from the previous year, fueled by favorable farm gate prices and expanding demand from Ethiopia’s brewing sector.

Consumption is projected at 2.47 million MT, up 2% year-on-year. Barley remains a staple in highland diets and is increasingly used for malt and animal feed. Imports are expected to reach 100,000 MT, up sharply from under 1,000 MT in MY 2023/24 and exceeding the five-year average of 40,000 MT. Currently, 95% of Ethiopia’s malt barley needs are met locally.

Millet production is forecast at 1.10 million MT, reflecting a 2.2 percent decrease, largely attributed to limited access to improved inputs and conflict in major producing areas like Amhara.

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