Dry weather negatively impacts Turkey’s wheat, barley outlook: USDA
The FAS notes that wheat consumption has stagnated in recent years due to demographic changes and evolving consumption habits.
TURKEY – Turkey’s wheat and barley production outlook will be negatively impacted by dryness exhibited by limited rainfall in the fall and winter months and the likelihood of continued dry conditions, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
The report indicates that while corn production is expected to rise due to strong domestic prices, wheat output is projected to decline for the 2025-26 marketing year.
Wheat production is anticipated to fall to 18.5 million tonnes in 2025-26 from 19 million tonnes the previous year, despite a slight increase in harvested area to 7.35 million hectares.
This decrease is attributed to lower yields caused by very dry weather, particularly in key wheat-producing regions.
Wheat consumption is expected to remain stable at 19.4 million tonnes, as demand for food-grade wheat, which constitutes about 90% of usage, is projected to hold steady.
Population growth has slowed compared to 2010-20, and higher-income consumers are opting for a wider variety of food options rather than bread.
Nevertheless, Turkey, with a population exceeding 87 million, remains one of the largest per capita consumers of bread globally.
Turkey produces over 24 million tonnes of various wheat products, including flour, pasta, and biscuits, with 550 active milling operations capable of processing around 33 million tonnes annually.
Additionally, there are 25 pasta plants with a production capacity of about 2.9 million tonnes.
Wheat imports for 2025-26 are projected to reach 8 million tonnes, an increase of 4 million tonnes from the previous year, as it is expected that the government will not impose import restrictions and Turkish millers will return to their previous import levels, with Russia likely remaining the main supplier.
Barley production is also expected to suffer due to dry weather, with harvested area projected to decrease by 7% to 3.5 million hectares and production dropping 11% year-on-year to 6.25 million tonnes. Barley consumption is forecast to remain steady at 7.4 million tonnes.
According to the FAS, farmers planted less barley last fall, opting instead for more profitable dryland crops like wheat, canola, and sunflowers.
In contrast, corn area is expected to increase to 610,000 hectares in 2025-26, as farmers are likely to grow more corn due to strong prices, which exceeded US$270 per tonne in March, FAS said.
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