China targets sharp cut in soybean imports by 2035 in self-sufficiency drive
Beijing sets plan to lower soybean purchases by 26 percent as grain output rises and import reliance slows.
CHINA – China has set a clear target to cut its reliance on imported soybeans over the next decade. The Ministry of Agriculture projects that purchases will fall to 82.55 million tons by 2035, according to its latest agricultural outlook.
Reuters reports that this figure marks a drop of about 26 percent from the 2025 peak of 111.83 million tons.
Beijing also plans to trim wider grain imports. The report shows that total grain imports will fall from 140.56 million tons in 2025 to 115 million tons in 2035. At the same time, China expects grain output to rise to 753 million tons, up from 715 million tons last year.
Officials link this shift to a stronger push for food self-reliance. China already aims to cut soybean imports by 6.1 percent this year. The country now focuses on raising farm output through higher yields and better farming methods.
Analysts, however, urge caution. China has set similar targets before but has not fully met them. In 2022, the government projected soybean production would reach 23 million tons by 2025. Data from the United States Department of Agriculture shows output has stayed below 21 million tons.
Trade experts say China’s long-term import plan could reshape global soybean flows. For more than twenty years, Chinese demand has driven global soybean trade, especially for animal feed.
China hosts the world’s largest pig population, and its livestock sector depends heavily on protein meal. Demand surged after the African swine fever outbreak in 2018, which pushed farmers to rebuild herds and increase feed use. This trend supported strong soybean expansion in Brazil, where farmers converted large areas into crop land.
Today, global oilseed production stands above 420 million tons each year, up by more than 100 million tons since 2015 to 2016, according to USDA data. Brazil now leads global soybean exports and supplies more than 40 percent of world trade, overtaking the United States as China’s main supplier.
The OECD and FAO also see a slowdown in Chinese import growth. They state, “ In China, growth in crushed tonnage is expected to slow compared to the last ten years and Chinese imports are expected to remain relatively stable, settling at around 107 Mt in 2034 (whereas they increased by 3.4% per year in 2015-24), which represents about 60% of global soybean imports ,”
China’s latest plan signals tighter control of food supply chains and stronger pressure on global soybean exporters as the next decade approaches.
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