China eyes 106 MT soybean imports amid higher protein demand
The FAS said its relatively stable forecast for soybean imports is linked to restrained 2% growth in crushing demand.
CHINA – China’s appetite for protein meals, particularly soybean meal, is set to keep its oilseed imports at historically high levels, even as domestic production inches upward, according to the latest update from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
In its Sept. 26 report, the FAS projected China’s soybean production at 19.93 million tonnes for marketing year 2025-26, supported by generally favorable weather in northern China and slightly higher planted area, estimated at 9.96 million hectares. This compares with 19.91 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season.
Despite the marginal rise in domestic output, China, the world’s largest soybean importer, is expected to bring in 106 million tonnes in 2025-26.
The volume is unchanged from FAS’s previous forecast and only slightly below the revised 107 million tonnes imported in 2024-25. The relatively stable outlook reflects restrained growth in crushing demand, pegged at about 2%, and ongoing government efforts to temper import growth.
Soybean crushing is forecast at 103 million tonnes in 2025-26, up by 2 million tonnes from the previous year, reflecting steady expansion of protein meal demand in the feed sector.
Total oilseed crushing is estimated at 139.1 million tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 140.7 million tonnes, largely due to weaker rapeseed processing. Even so, the figure exceeds the 138.7 million tonnes estimated for 2024-25.
China’s feed industry continues to expand, underscoring robust demand for protein meals. Data from the China Feed Industry Association shows feed production reached 158.5 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, a 7.7% year-on-year increase.
South America remains the dominant supplier to China. Since the start of the current shipping season, Brazil has emerged as the main origin for Chinese soybean purchases.
In May 2025, China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) reported record monthly soybean imports of 13.9 million tonnes, including 12.1 million tonnes from Brazil. By contrast, US shipments have stalled.
“According to USDA FAS Export Sales data, China has not made purchases of soybeans from the United States since May 2025 and, as of Sept. 11 had not made any purchases of new crop soybeans,” the FAS said.
With a 23% tariff still applied to US soybeans, the commodity remains uncompetitive in the Chinese market.
The report also highlighted shifts in rapeseed trade. China’s 2025-26 rapeseed production forecast stands at 15.9 million tonnes on 7.5 million hectares of planted area, but imports are expected to fall to 3.1 million tonnes, down from 4.1 million tonnes in the previous forecast.
The FAS cited trade frictions with Canada, China’s largest rapeseed supplier over the past two decades, as the main driver of the adjustment. China is reportedly exploring renewed imports from Australia to diversify supply.
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