China eyes record corn harvest despite lowered forecast, slashes imports further

CHINA – China is expected to harvest a record 298 million tonnes of corn in the 2025-26 marketing year, despite a recent downward revision of 2 million tonnes by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

The adjustment, released in FAS’s first update since April, attributes the lower projection to slightly reduced planted area and delays in sowing.

However, the outlook remains historically high due to anticipated yield improvements tied to the government’s long-term grain production strategy.

The record forecast supports Beijing’s national plan to boost grain production capacity by 50 million tonnes by 2030. Initiated in 2024, the policy focuses heavily on corn as a key driver, with government investments targeting higher-yielding seed varieties, improved mechanization, and more efficient land use.

FAS reports that while the overall corn output is now projected slightly lower, China is expected to maintain a strong production base thanks to better yield performance across stable acreage. The strategy is clearly aimed at enhancing food security while reducing the country’s reliance on external suppliers.

Alongside the production forecast, China’s corn import outlook for 2025-26 has also been revised downward.

FAS now projects imports at 8 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from its previous estimate but still 1 million tonnes higher than the 2024-25 figure. This continues a steep decline from the 23 million tonnes imported in the 2023-24 season, marking a significant shift in trade dynamics.

“The Chinese government continues to promote higher local production via better yield on stable area and discourages grain imports reportedly to protect the interests of local farmers,” the FAS noted.

Imports from Brazil have grown steadily over recent years, while volumes from Russia have reached up to 30,000 tonnes per month, a level expected to persist, albeit with limited overall market impact.

On the other hand, imports from Ukraine have fallen sharply, totaling just 50,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2025, down from 200,000 tonnes during the same period last year.

U.S. corn shipments to China have seen a dramatic collapse since October 2024, with volumes falling below 10,000 tonnes per month and no major consignments reported recently. According to the FAS, “Industry states that the United States remains the most uncertain source among all corn suppliers to China.”

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