COUNTRY FOCUS: Zimbabwe’s Agricultural Crisis in 2023/24
Zimbabwe, nestled in Southern Africa between the Zambezi and Limpopo Rivers, boasts a population of 16,724,546 as of October 2024, according to Worldometer’s analysis of the latest United Nations data. The nation’s economy leans heavily on agriculture, which contributes 17% to its GDP and employs 60% to 70% of its workforce. Agricultural performance stands as a pivotal factor influencing rural livelihood resilience and poverty levels, as highlighted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. With 4,130,000 hectares of arable land, a quarter of which is cultivated using animal and manual draught power, maize remains the dominant crop, although there’s a growing emphasis on diversifying production with crops like wheat, sorghum, and millet to bolster food security initiatives.
Worst drought in 40 years
Climate change poses a significant threat to Zimbabwe’s grain sector, with erratic rainfall patterns and prolonged droughts becoming increasingly common. The country faced its worst drought in 40 years during the 2023/2024 growing season, primarily driven by the El Niño weather phenomenon. This climatic event triggered a dry spell across southern Africa, drastically impacting crop yields.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa reported that over 900,000 hectares (ha) of maize have been devastated by the drought, out of an estimated 1.8 million hectares planted. This significant loss has severely compromised food security, compelling the Zimbabwean government to declare a “State of Disaster” in April 2024. In his address, President Mnangagwa emphasized the urgent need for approximately US$2 billion in aid to provide life-saving assistance to affected communities. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), more than 5.3 million people in Zimbabwe are projected to face food insecurity in 2024, a dramatic increase from previous years.
Zimbabwe’s Maize Crisis: Severe Drought and Declining Production
Maize remains Zimbabwe’s principal grain, with the country consuming an estimated 2.2 million metric tons annually; 1.8 million tons for food and 400,000 tons for livestock feed. Although sugarcane is the most produced crop in the country, maize production plays a crucial role in the nation’s food security and agricultural economy. However, the sector is dominated by smallholder farmers, over 90% of whom rely heavily on rainfall due to limited access to irrigation technologies. This makes maize production extremely vulnerable to climate variability.
Zimbabwe’s maize production for the 2024-25 marketing year (May 2024 to April 2025) is forecast to fall by a staggering 60% due to severe drought conditions linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), maize production is projected to drop to 635,000 tonnes, a significant decline from the 1.5 million tonnes harvested in the previous season.
In the 2023/24 summer cropping season, Zimbabwe’s cereal production was predicted to drop by 65% to 800,000 tonnes from 2.3 million tonnes in the previous season. This sharp decline was primarily attributed to the El Niño-induced drought. Obert Jiri, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Water, Fisheries, and Rural Development, confirmed that most dry-land maize and traditional grains were a complete write-off. For maize, FAS data forecasted to fall 70%, reaching its lowest level in almost a decade at 696,116 tonnes, compared to the 2.3 million tonnes produced the previous year.
In previous years, maize production has been highly volatile. For instance, in the 2022/23 season, maize production plummeted by 43%, down to 1.5 million tonnes from a bumper harvest in 2021/22, when the country produced 2.7 million metric tons. This instability led the Zimbabwean government to lift a maize import ban in 2022, which had been in place since May 2021 following a near-record harvest.
According to recent estimates announced by the Ministry of Agriculture in May 2024, Zimbabwe’s maize harvest is expected to fall 70%, its lowest level in nearly a decade, after drought decimated crops. In its outlook report, the Ministry projects that maize production would stand at 696,116 tonnes at the end of the 2023/2024 campaign which will end next July, down from the 2.3 million tonnes that was estimated for 2023. The predicted stock, in addition, would represent a drop of 36% compared to the forecasts of 1.1 million tonnes made last December and 50% compared to the harvest of 1.4 million tonnes achieved during the previous campaign.
This would be the smallest harvest since 2016, 8 years ago, when Zimbabwe produced just 512,000 tonnes.
Zimbabwe’s Corn Production and Yield Trends
Importing to Fill the Gap
After enjoying the status of a surplus producer of corn, Zimbabwe has become a net food importer over the past 20 years. For the 2024-25 marketing year, it is estimated that Zimbabwe will need to import at least 1 million tonnes of maize to meet domestic demand. The government has issued over 651 import permits, allowing private companies to procure at least 3.2 million tonnes of maize, well above the nation’s annual consumption needs of 2.2 million tonnes. This large import volume highlights the urgency of the crisis. In addition to food maize, the demand for feed corn is expected to increase to 350,000 metric tonnes for the 2024-25 marketing year, as the country struggles to meet both human and livestock consumption needs
As maize production falters, the GMB struggles to maintain its strategic reserves, putting the country’s food security at risk. If the government aims to restore its strategic reserves to the mandated 500,000 tonnes, this figure could rise to 1.5 million tonnes.
Strategic Grain Reserves Under Pressure
Zimbabwe’s Grain Marketing Board (GMB) is mandated to maintain a minimum strategic reserve of 500,000 tonnes of grain, with maize comprising the bulk of this reserve. However, the FAS report warns that carry-over stocks could plummet to just 150,000 tonnes in the 2024-25 season, a dangerously low level for a country that faces ongoing food insecurity. The 2023/24 marketing year saw maize production estimated at 1.5 million metric tons, reflecting only a modest 5% increase from the previous year, primarily due to favorable rainfall in the northern regions. Still, this fell far short of the country’s annual maize demand, creating a deficit of nearly 700,000 tonnes.
Zimbabwe’s reliance on maize imports is growing, particularly from neighboring South Africa, which enjoyed a record maize surplus in the 2023/24 season, exporting over 3 million metric tons. However, persistent drought conditions, economic instability, and rising input costs make it increasingly challenging for Zimbabwe to bridge this gap.
Zimbabwe Turns to Global Corn Markets Amid Southern Africa Drought Crisis
Zimbabwe, once known as Africa’s breadbasket, is now grappling with a severe corn shortage that has forced it to look beyond its borders for supplies. Historically, the country relied on neighboring South Africa and Zambia for corn imports. In Marketing Year (MY) 2023/24, Zimbabwe imported nearly 640,000 metric tonnes (MT) of corn from South Africa. However, drought across the southern African region has tightened supplies, creating a challenging situation for MY 2024/25.
South Africa, a key supplier, has seen its corn output drop by almost 20% due to the drought. Zambia, another traditional exporter, is also struggling to meet domestic demand and is set to import at least 1.0 million metric tonnes (MMT) of corn, further straining the regional supply. As the availability of corn decreases across the region, the competition for limited supplies intensifies.
In response to the crisis, Zimbabwe recently received a donation of 1,000 MT of maize from Rwanda, providing some relief. However, the nation faces ongoing challenges in securing enough corn to meet its demand. The country plans to turn to global markets to compensate for regional shortages, with potential imports from countries like Brazil, Russia, Argentina, and the United States.
Zimbabwe’s Response to a Tightening Supply
Although Zimbabwe permits genetically engineered (GE) corn imports, strict regulations require that these shipments undergo quarantine before being processed into cornmeal, a staple food in the country. The Zimbabwean government is facilitating these imports in partnership with private millers.
Due to the tight supply, consumption patterns are also expected to shift. Human consumption of corn is forecast to decline by 6% to 1.5 MMT, driven by reduced availability and rising prices. However, demand for feed corn in the livestock sector is projected to increase. The sector’s consumption could rise to 350,000 MT as Zimbabwe seeks to sustain its national cattle herd and support the expanding broiler production industry, which grew by 9% in 2023.
In response, Zimbabwe is taking steps to improve its grain storage infrastructure, which is managed by the GMB. Plans are in place to expand storage capacity by 750,000 MT over the next three years. This expansion aims to enhance food security and safeguard against future supply disruptions, allowing the country better to manage shocks in the global and regional grain markets.
Zimbabwe Achieves Wheat Self-Sufficiency
Zimbabwe has achieved a significant milestone in its agricultural sector by surpassing self-sufficiency in wheat production. According to the Rural Agricultural Advisory Services, the 2023 wheat harvest reached 468,000 tonnes, marking a 25% year-on-year increase. With an annual domestic wheat consumption of 360,000 tonnes, the year’s production surplus of 108,000 tonnes granted Zimbabwe self-sufficiency status to enter the export market in the 2023/2024 season.
This achievement follows Zimbabwe’s first self-sufficiency in wheat production in 2022, a milestone that set the stage for the current surplus.
For the 2023/2024 marketing year, Zimbabwean farmers planted a remarkable 121,769 hectares of wheat, representing a 34% increase from the previous year and surpassing the government’s target of 120,000 hectares. This expansion solidifies the country’s ability to exceed its domestic consumption needs and bolster the production and sales of wheat-based foods. The pure irrigated wheat crop, essential to mitigating the effects of the El Niño-induced drought, is projected to yield over 600,000 tonnes, far beyond the nation’s annual requirement of 360,000 tonnes. This harvest sets a new record since wheat production began in the country in 1966.
The Zimbabwean government and its Rural Agricultural Advisory Services have been closely monitoring these developments. The government has incentivized wheat farmers with a planning price of US$ 440 per tonne, encouraging them to exceed the initial hectarage target of 120,000 hectares. Despite these successes, Zimbabwe still faces challenges in producing enough durum wheat, which is essential for the pasta, biscuit, and bakery industries.
Bread Quality in Zimbabwe: Why Wheat Imports Remain Essential Despite Increased Local Production
Despite a rise in wheat production in Zimbabwe, the quality remains insufficient for bread production, forcing the nation to continue importing wheat. For the past two decades, Zimbabwe has blended imported wheat, mainly from Russia, Canada, and Australia, with locally grown wheat to produce high-quality bread flour.
Currently, Zimbabwe imports around 30% of its hard wheat needs to achieve the desired flour blend. According to the Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ), whose members produce 98% of the country’s flour, the imported wheat is essential for achieving the quality required for bread production. This import strategy is vital for maintaining bread quality, as local wheat alone cannot meet the necessary standards.
Tafadzwa Musarara, GMAZ Chairman, commented in a 2023 report, “The quality of our local wheat is good compared to regional wheat, and it’s performing well in producing biscuits and other products. However, for bread, we must mix varieties to produce durable, high-quality loaves.” The National Bakers Association of Zimbabwe has identified the ideal blend as 70% local wheat and 30% imported wheat for optimal bread production.
However, Zimbabwe has reported a 17% reduction in durum wheat imports in the first half of 2024, further highlighting its commitment to self-sufficiency. According to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStats), the value of unmilled durum wheat imports dropped from USD 65.4 million in the first half of 2023 to USD 48.3 million during the same period in 2024. This decrease is a direct result of the government’s focused approach to increase local wheat production and reduce reliance on foreign markets.
The government is exploring the commercial production of durum wheat. Dr. Dumisani Kutywayo, Chief Director of the Department of Research and Specialist Services (DRSS), noted that previous efforts to commercialize durum wheat varieties were hampered by low demand. However, the recent increase in imports suggest a shift in demand due to local production of pasta, biscuits and other products.
Therefore, the Crop Breeding Institute (CBI) is poised to revisit the issue of durum wheat commercialization. “There have to be takers of the varieties,” Dr. Kutywayo emphasized.
Unpacking Zimbabwe’s Flour Milling Dynamics
The flour milling sector in Zimbabwe consists of approximately 40 milling companies, with a total milling capacity estimated at around 900,000 metric tons annually. Despite this capacity, the country consumes approximately 300,000 metric tons of flour annually, indicating a significant surplus potential. Among these products, maize meal dominates the market, accounting for over 60% of total flour consumption. The average per capita flour consumption in Zimbabwe is estimated at 21 kg per year.
Dominated by four major players, such as National Foods Holdings Ltd., Blue Ribbon Foods, Ashanti Milling, and Proton Bakeries, these giant companies benefit from economies of scale, advanced milling technologies, and strategic marketing initiatives, contributing to nearly 70% of the country’s flour production. On the other hand, smaller milling operations exist alongside these industry giants, often catering to niche markets and offering specialised products.
However, the industry faces substantial hurdles, primarily due to hyperinflation, which has severely impacted input costs and overall profitability. According to the World Bank, Zimbabwe has experienced one of the highest inflation rates globally, adversely affecting the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. As a result, many milling companies struggle to sustain operations amid rising costs and diminished consumer purchasing power.
Sorghum and Millet: Resilient Grains in a Changing Climate
Sorghum and millet are traditional grains that have gained renewed attention in Zimbabwe due to their resilience to drought and poor soils. In May 2023, the government came up with measures to increase the hectarage under small grains under climate-proofing strategy to attain national self-sufficiency in food. Nationally sorghum, pearl and finger millet production has been on upward trend with total production rising from 76 362 tonnes in 2019 to 280 956 in 2023. Provision of agro-inputs under the new agro-ecological zone mapping in the 2022/23 agriculture season resulted in a 45 percent increase in production from 194 097 tonnes in 2021/22 season to 280 956 tonnes in the 2022/23 season. These grains are critical in the country’s strategy to build climate resilience in agriculture. The government, in collaboration with development partners, has promoted the cultivation of these crops, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where maize production is less viable.
This feature appeared in ISSUE 11 of MILLING MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA MAGAZINE. You can read this and the entire magazine HERE
