Australia poised for strong wheat,barley harvests despite dryness: USDA
Despite FAS forecasting a decline in wheat and barley production for the upcoming season, output is still expected to remain well above the previous 10-year average.
AUSTRALIA -Australia is on track for a strong winter crop season in 2025–26, with wheat production forecast at 31 million tonnes and barley at 12.5 million tonnes, according to the latest report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
While these figures represent year-over-year declines,down from 34.1 million tonnes for wheat and 13.3 million tonnes for barley,they remain significantly above the 10-year averages of 27.6 million and 11.8 million tonnes, respectively.
Early seasonal conditions in major grain producing states particulary New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, have been favourable, supporting optimism for robust output.
These areas have seen adequate rainfall and soil moisture levels, creating a solid foundation for the current planting season. However, the outlook is less optimistic in South Australia and western Victoria, where persistent dry conditions and low soil moisture have posed challenges.
Still, the FAS notes there is sufficient time until the end of June for rainfall to improve the situation and support planting efforts.
Australia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, is projected to ship 23 million tonnes of wheat in 2025/26, a 3-million-tonne drop from the previous marketing year, primarily due to the expected reduction in production.
Domestic wheat consumption is expected to increase marginally to 8.1 million tonnes, up by 100,000 tonnes, driven by higher demand from the livestock feed sector.
Wheat usage for milling remains steady but may see future growth as Australia’s population, now nearing 27 million, continues to rise, potentially stimulating investment in milling infrastructure.
Barley, for which Australia is the top global exporter, is also expected to see lower exports at 6.5 million tonnes, down 500,000 tonnes from the previous year. Nevertheless, this still represents a strong trade performance given the production forecast.
Domestic consumption of barley is projected to rise to 6.1 million tonnes, largely due to increased demand from the beef feedlot sector.
With the ongoing trade tensions, particularly China’s recent imposition of tariffs on U.S. feed grains in early April 2025, industry suggest that the situation may further strengthen Australian barley exports in the short term.
Sorghum production is forecast to climb slightly to 2.5 million tonnes, marking the fifth consecutive year of above-average output.
With most of this grain destined for overseas markets, exports are projected to rise 9% to 2.4 million tonnes. This growth continues to underscore Australia’s position as a reliable supplier of sorghum in the global market.
On the other hand, milled rice production is facing a severe downturn, with estimates pointing to a 39% drop to just 230,000 tonnes in 2025–26.
This figure is also 31% below the 10-year average, primarily due to limited irrigation water availability. The shortfall may lead to increased imports or shifts in cropping decisions in regions dependent on rice cultivation.
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