Turkey’s wheat, barley, and corn production to decline in 2024-25 due to drier weather

TURKEY – Turkey’s key commodities, including wheat, barley, and corn production are projected to face significant declines in the 2024-25 growing season due to drier weather conditions, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The USDA estimates the wheat production to fall to 19 million tonnes, a drop of 2 million tonnes compared to the previous season. Barley production is forecasted at 7 million tonnes, down by 1 million tonnes, while corn production is expected to decline by 1.3 million tonnes to 7.1 million tonnes.

Despite the anticipated production contraction, Turkey still holds large carryover stocks of wheat and barley.

Wheat imports, which decreased by 40% in the first half of 2024, are expected to rebound in the latter half of the year, potentially reaching 5.5 million tonnes. The earlier decrease was attributed to the government’s decision to suspend the inward processing regime (IPR) for wheat.  

In June 2024, Türkiye implemented the import ban to support its agricultural sector, stabilize wheat prices, and encourage local sourcing through the Turkish State Grain Board (TMO).

This was in response to a global wheat market disrupted by the Russia-Ukraine war, where Türkiye traditionally sources significant volumes of wheat, particularly from Russia.

The ban had effectively halted Türkiye’s wheat imports from Black Sea producers, leading to concerns about the supply for the country’s pasta and flour-making industries.

However, the temporary suspension of the IPR, coupled with domestic purchase requirements, is likely to impact wheat exports, which are forecasted to drop by 2.95 million tonnes to 7 million tonnes. The FAS highlighted that Turkish flour exporters face challenges in recovering lost market share in key regions such as Africa and the Middle East.

Corn imports are projected at 2.4 million tonnes, assuming the government does not reinstitute a tariff rate quota (TRQ).

In October 2024, to stabilize corn prices, the Turkish government introduced a TRQ of 1 million tonnes with an in-quota duty of 5%, effective until the end of 2024. With the expiration of the TRQ, the out-of-quota duty has reverted to the Most Favored Nation (MFN) rate of 130%.

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