Vietnam’s rice export prices plunge to nine-year low, prompting concerns for 2025
VIETNAM – Vietnam’s rice export prices have plummeted to their lowest level in nine years, signaling potential challenges for the country’s rice exports in 2025.
The price of Vietnam’s 5% broken rice fell to US$399 per ton as of February 7, a 5.9% decrease from the end of 2024. This figure is significantly lower than the prices of similar products from Thailand and India, which are selling at US$34 and US$14 per ton higher, respectively.
According to the Vietnam Food Association, the drop represents a 40% decline from the peak of US$663 seen in November 2023. The price of 25% broken rice has also decreased to US$371 per ton, while Thai, Indian, and Pakistani exports are priced higher at US$410, US$394, and US$377, respectively.
Dinh Ngoc Tam, deputy CEO of rice exporter Co May, attributes the price decrease to an increase in global supply resulting from India’s re-entry into the market with record rice reserves.
“My company had few orders last month and none in February,” Tam stated, highlighting the immediate impact of the price drop on Vietnamese rice exporters.
Businesses anticipate a further decline in prices as Vietnam’s winter-spring rice harvest, the year’s primary crop, is expected to yield a bumper crop due to favorable weather conditions.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reports that Vietnam exported 500,000 tons of rice in January 2025, generating US$308 million in revenue. While the export volume increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, the total value decreased by 10.4%.
The Vietnam Food Association forecasts exports of 7.5 million tons for 2025, a decrease from the record nine million tons exported in 2024. This projection aligns with concerns about weakening demand and increased competition among producing countries.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade and economic experts have noted the sharp decline in Vietnam’s current rice export prices compared to the peak of US$700 per ton in mid-August 2023, which was the highest level in 15 years since 2008. Compared to this record price, Vietnam’s rice prices have fallen by US$301 per ton, equivalent to a decrease of 43 percent over the past 17 months.
The concerns come as the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a peak in global rice supply for 2024-25, reaching 527.6 million tons, driven by increased production in India and China. The USDA anticipates global consumption of 526.4 million tons and exports of 56.3 million tons.
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