South Korea’s milled rice output, consumption expected to decline in 2025/26: USDA
The drop is attributed to a continued reduction in planted area, part of a national strategy to manage long-standing oversupply challenges in the domestic market
SOUTH KOREA – South Korea’s milled rice production is forecast to decline for the third consecutive year in the 2025-26 marketing year, falling to 3.44 million tonnes, according to the latest report by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The drop is attributed to a continued reduction in planted area, part of a national strategy to manage long-standing oversupply challenges in the domestic market.
The planted area is projected to shrink to 660,000 hectares in 2025-26, down 38,000 hectares from the previous year. This is a significant move toward the government’s targeted reduction of 80,000 hectares under policies designed to stabilize the market and shift land use toward more economically viable or sustainable alternatives.
The latest projection represents a continued decline from 3.58 million tonnes in 2024-25 and 3.7 million tonnes in 2023-24, as South Korea’s rice sector faces not only supply-side constraints but also weakening demand.
Rice consumption in the country is also forecast to fall, driven by demographic shifts and changes in eating habits among younger consumers.
The FAS projects consumption at 3.81 million tonnes in 2025-26, down from 3.88 million tonnes in the current season and 4.19 million tonnes in 2023-24. South Korea’s population is expected to drop significantly, from the current level to 47.1 million by 2050 and further to 36.2 million by 2072, reflecting one of the world’s lowest fertility rates.
In response to the declining consumption trend, the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Rural Affairs (MAFRA) is ramping up promotional efforts.
On June 19, MAFRA announced the creation of the Korea Rice Industry Association, a nonprofit funded through a check-off program. This body will focus on boosting rice consumption, supporting market development, and balancing supply with demand.
“Consumption of rice for processing continues to partially offset the reduction of total consumption, as the popularity of Korean processed rice products such as frozen kimbap and snacks maintains their growth in the global market,” the FAS noted in the report.
Exports are projected to reach 200,000 tonnes in 2025-26, up from 180,000 tonnes in 2024-25 and 129,000 tonnes in 2023-24.
These gains are being achieved through a combination of commercial sales and rice aid contributions via multilateral organizations, including the UN World Food Programme. The FAS expects exports to increase further as the government intensifies its support for the rice industry’s global outreach.
Ending stocks are projected to decline to 977,000 tonnes by the end of 2025-26, down from 1.14 million tonnes in 2024-25 and 1.2 million tonnes in 2023-24, signaling a slow but steady improvement in stock management driven by balanced production, moderated consumption, and expanding exports.
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