South Africa’s maize output forecast to decline 19% in 2026/27
Output is projected to fall by 19% to 14.9 million tonnes, well below last year’s record crop of 18.4 million tonnes.
SOUTH AFRICA – Maize production is forecast to decline by approximately 19% to 14.9 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year, down from a record 18.39 million tonnes in the previous season, according to a forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service’s agricultural attaché in Pretoria.
The projected decline reflects expectations of reduced planting areas, unfavourable weather conditions and rising agricultural production costs, which could tighten domestic grain supplies and reduce export availability.
According to the November 3, 2026, forecast, South Africa’s maize harvested area is expected to fall to 2.76 million hectares, down from 3.12 million hectares in 2025/26.
Average yields are also projected to fall to 5.4 tonnes per hectare from 5.9 tonnes per hectare, contributing to the anticipated reduction in overall production.
One major concern for the coming season is the potential development of a strong El Niño weather phenomenon, which could bring below-average rainfall across the country’s northern and eastern maize-producing regions.
These areas are particularly important for commercial maize production, making rainfall patterns during the planting and growing seasons critical to crop performance.
Higher production costs are adding further pressure on farmers.
Rising diesel prices, partly linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, have increased operational expenses, while fertilizer and other agricultural inputs continue to influence planting decisions.
These factors could discourage producers from maintaining the previous season’s planting levels.
The anticipated production decline is expected to affect South Africa’s grain balance sheet.
USDA projections indicate that maize ending stocks could fall by almost 50% to 2.11 million tonnes in 2026/27, from 4.21 million tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Meanwhile, domestic consumption is forecast to increase to 14.5 million tonnes from 14.2 million tonnes, reflecting continued demand from food processors, livestock producers and the animal feed manufacturing industry.
Maize exports are also projected to fall to 2.5 million tonnes, down from about 3 million tonnes in 2025/26.
Lower export availability could affect regional grain trade, particularly for neighbouring countries that depend on South African supplies.
However, the outlook remains subject to weather developments.
Relatively favourable conditions and adequate soil moisture in several producing regions could help moderate the projected production losses.
The USDA attaché forecast contrasts with South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee’s October 27 estimate of 17.69 million tonnes for the 2026 harvest, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the next production cycle.
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