South Africa’s grain sector poised for growth in 2025-26: USDA
Corn, the most important grain crop in South Africa, is projected to see a 2% increase in production, reaching 16 million metric tons.
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa’s agricultural sector is set for a positive trajectory in the 2025-26 marketing year, with corn and wheat production expected to increase, according to the latest report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Corn, the most important grain crop in South Africa, is projected to see a 2% increase in production, reaching 16 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025-26. The country primarily consumes two types of corn: white corn, which is a staple in human diets, and yellow corn, mostly used in the animal feed industry.
Consumption is expected to follow an annual growth trend of 2%, reaching 12.6 MMT. With a larger crop, South Africa’s corn exports are expected to rise by nearly 25% to 1.9 MMT. This increase in production is largely attributed to stable planting areas and improved weather conditions, which have supported better yields.
Despite this positive outlook, South Africa’s agricultural sector still faces major challenges, including policy uncertainties, logistical inefficiencies, and a high unemployment rate. These factors could impact domestic demand and the broader economic landscape.
Wheat, the second most important grain in South Africa after corn, is also set for moderate growth. Production is expected to rise slightly to 2 MMT, up from 1.9 MMT in the previous year. Meanwhile, domestic wheat consumption is forecasted to grow to 3.8 MMT, reflecting steady demand from the food industry.
Due to the shortfall in local wheat production, South Africa remains heavily dependent on imports. Wheat and wheat product imports for 2025-26 are projected to reach 2 MMT, marking a 5% increase from the previous year. Wheat exports, which are minimal in South Africa, are expected to remain flat.
While the agricultural outlook appears positive, the USDA highlighted ongoing challenges that could affect long-term growth. Policy uncertainty, logistical constraints, and high unemployment remain key concerns, potentially limiting the sector’s expansion.
“The broader economic challenges facing South Africa could impact the sustainability of consumption growth,” the FAS warned.
Infrastructure bottlenecks, particularly in rail and port systems, have previously disrupted agricultural exports, and further inefficiencies could dampen future trade prospects.
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