South Africa reaps record 21.6MT summer harvest as 2026/27 outlook dims

SOUTH AFRICA – The Crop Estimates Committee has released its seventh production forecast for summer crops (maize, sunflower seed, soybeans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans), confirming a record 21.6 million tonne harvest for the 2025-26 season.

The figure, released on 26 August 2026, moved up only slightly, by 0.02%, from the previous month’s estimate, but it still marks a 5% increase over the 2024-25 season and the largest summer crop on record.

Maize accounts for the bulk of that number. The Committee set the commercial maize crop at 17.4 million tonnes, up 0.23% from the prior forecast and 4.05% higher than last season’s 16.7 million tonnes.

White maize production came in at 9.49 million tonnes, while yellow maize reached 7.91 million tonnes. The Free State, Mpumalanga and North West provinces remain the backbone of production, together expected to supply 82% of the 2026 crop.

Soybean output also set a new high at 3.01 million tonnes, even after a slight downward revision from the previous forecast.

Groundnut estimates rose by 8.23% to 62,553 tonnes, while sunflower seed held steady at 874,805 tonnes.

Sorghum and dry beans both saw small downward adjustments, coming in at 138,248 tonnes and 79,155 tonnes respectively.

Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said the focus in farming circles has already moved past this year’s bumper crop and onto the risks building for next season. “While the focus of South Africa’s agricultural community is already on the upcoming 2026-27 season and the expected El Niño drought, the data remind us that we are closing one of the periods of production abundance,” he wrote in his AgriView newsletter.

Sihlobo linked the large harvest directly to consumer relief at the till. He noted that South Africa’s food price inflation slowed to 0.6% in July 2026, the lowest reading since 2010, with grains moving into deflation and helping pull overall food inflation down.

Farmers brace for a tighter, drier season

While the numbers released this week describe a season that has already been reaped, the mood among producers and grain organisations has shifted toward the season ahead. Grain SA warned recently that growers face tighter margins in 2026-27 as commodity prices stay under pressure and input costs remain high.

The organisation’s production budgets used five year average provincial yields from 2020-21 to 2024-25 and forward prices of R3,800 (US$236) per tonne for maize, R10,000 (US$620) per tonne for sunflower and R7,900 (US$490) per tonne for soybeans.

Fertiliser remains the single biggest cost for most producers. In the Eastern Free State, maize fertiliser costs top R8,600 (US$533) per hectare, and that figure climbs past R10,000 (US$620) per hectare on the eastern Highveld.

Returns vary sharply by region and crop. Sunflower posts the strongest gross margins in the Eastern Free State, while soybeans stay in positive territory across several regions. Maize profitability depends heavily on hitting strong yields and holding costs down.

In drier western production areas, maize variable costs fall to about R19,572 (US$1,213) per hectare in the North West Free State and R15,508 (US$961) in North West, but lower costs still do not make up for weaker yield potential there.

Irrigated maize fares worst on paper, needing more than R53,000 (US$3,284) per hectare in variable spending and showing a negative gross margin at current prices.

Grain SA cautioned producers against reading its budgets as guaranteed outcomes. “Every farming business is unique,” the organisation said, noting that actual returns will depend on yields, input costs, marketing decisions and market prices.

Sihlobo pointed to the forecast El Niño drought as the biggest risk hanging over the next summer crop, which will only be planted from October 2026 and will not reach the market until mid-2027. He also flagged the war in the Middle East as a threat to fertiliser and fuel prices, both of which feed directly into farmers’ costs.

The Crop Estimates Committee will release its eighth production forecast for summer crops on 29 September 2026, alongside the second forecast for winter cereals.

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