South Africa posts second-largest maize crop, hits over 16MT
With annual domestic consumption estimated at around 12 million tonnes, the current harvest places South Africa firmly in surplus.
SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa has delivered its second-largest maize crop on record, with the 2024/25 harvest reaching 16.44 million tonnes, according to a recent analysis by Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
The strong performance marks a 28% increase from the previous season and has already filtered through the market by boosting export supplies and easing domestic grain prices, ultimately offering relief to consumers.
The larger crop comes despite early-season concerns about delayed rainfall. Producers across the maize-growing regions initially feared that the late onset of precipitation would limit yield potential.
Instead, the final outcome has been “quite well” aligned with expectations for a favourable season, supported by consistent La Niña-linked rainfall patterns and improved crop management across farming regions.
The primary driver of the bumper harvest was yield performance. The total area planted in the 2024/25 season fell slightly to 2.59 million hectares, down mildly from the previous season.
Even so, favourable moisture conditions allowed the crop to achieve higher productivity, lifting production across nearly all major maize-producing zones. Of the total output, white maize accounted for 8.38 million tonnes, while yellow maize contributed 8.06 million tonnes.
With annual domestic consumption estimated at around 12 million tonnes, the current harvest places South Africa firmly in surplus.
This ensures continued supply security across the food and feed sectors, while also supporting the country’s role as a reliable maize exporter during the 2025/26 marketing year, which began in May.
From May 2025 to November 21, 2025, South Africa exported 1.07 million tonnes of maize. Full-season exports are projected to reach 2.24 million tonnes by the end of April 2026.
Market activity is expected to accelerate early next year as neighbouring countries enter periods of tighter supply and begin to draw more heavily from South Africa’s surplus.
Zimbabwe remains the largest buyer so far, taking 30% of the total volume exported. Botswana follows with 13%, while Vietnam accounts for 10%, reflecting its strong demand for yellow maize used in feed manufacturing.
Other notable destinations include Namibia, Eswatini, Venezuela, South Korea, and Taiwan. Regional markets continue to absorb a mix of white and yellow maize, while Far East customers predominantly source yellow maize for livestock and poultry feed.
The ample domestic supplies have also translated into softer local grain prices. By November 26, 2025, white maize spot prices averaged around R3,794 (US$223) per tonne, a significant 39% decline from the previous year.
Yellow maize prices were similarly lower, trading at approximately R3,694 (US$217 per tonne, down 25% year-on-year.
These declines reflect a well-supplied market and are expected to support consumer food price inflation, particularly in segments where maize is a key input.
Beyond marketing activities, farmers are now preparing for the next production cycle. The weather outlook remains favourable, suggesting continued stability for the maize sector as planting operations progress in the months ahead.
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