South Africa maintains stable maize supply amid regional shortages – analyst

SOUTH AFRICA – South Africa is not facing a maize shortage despite a 19% decline in maize production compared to the previous season, Wandile Sihlobo, the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA, has reported.

As an agricultural analyst, Sihlobo maintains that the country’s maize supply remains stable and sufficient to meet domestic needs while continuing exports to neighboring countries.

The Southern African region has once again felt the harsh impact of drought on maize production, a staple crop that is deeply embedded in the region’s agricultural and economic fabric.

Countries like Zimbabwe and Zambia have suffered devastating losses, with up to 50% of their maize crop wiped out due to adverse weather conditions during the 2023-24 summer season. However, Sihlobo says South Africa remains relatively insulated from the crisis, owing to its diversified agricultural base and advanced seed breeding technologies.

South Africa’s maize output for the 2023-24 production season stands at approximately 13.34 million tonnes. This comprises 6.35 million tonnes of white maize, down 26% year-on-year, and 6.99 million tonnes of yellow maize, down 12% year-on-year.

While this represents a decline, it still sufficiently covers the nation’s annual maize consumption of around 12 million tonnes, leaving a surplus of approximately 1.85 million tonnes for export.

According to him, contrary to some reports suggesting fears of a maize shortage, South Africa’s agricultural sector remains stable. The recent decision by authorities to clear the way for yellow maize imports from Brazil was not driven by concerns over shortages but rather by a need to provide flexibility in maize supplies for the animal feed industry, particularly in coastal regions.

South Africa has already been importing maize to meet specific market needs; between May and July 2024, the country imported approximately 130,000 tonnes of yellow maize from Argentina for animal feed purposes. The total maize imports for the 2024-25 marketing year are expected to rise to around 350,000 tonnes.

The analyst maintains that South Africa continues to play a crucial role in supporting its neighbors amid their maize shortages.

The country has already exported 567,000 tonnes of maize between May and early August 2024, a significant portion of the anticipated 1.85 million tonnes of total exports.

Zimbabwe, which has seen over half of its maize crop lost to drought, has also emerged as one of the main beneficiaries of these exports, alongside other neighboring nations in dire need of maize supplies.

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